Guagolotes, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

072
FXUS65 KABQ 292001
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
201 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 122 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will
  linger this evening mainly along and east of the central
  mountain chain, and potentially also as far west as the Jemez
  and southwest mountains. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
  forecast to return over parts of northern and west central New
  Mexico on Tuesday afternoon and early evening, but rain amounts
  will be light.
- After a dry and warmer period mid week, a storm system will
  cross Colorado and northern New Mexico with a chance for
  rain showers and thunderstorms over northern and west central
  areas. There may also be a dusting of snow in the northern
  mountains above 10,000 feet. The weather system will also make
  winds gusty Friday through the weekend with the strongest gusts
  potentially reaching over 40 mph over the northern mountains and
  northeast on Saturday afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 122 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will
linger along and east of the central mountain chain this evening,
and as far west as the Jemez and southwest mountains, as an upper
level trough finishes crossing from the southwest. Drier air will
filter over the area from the southwest tonight and Tuesday, but
enough moisture should linger on Tuesday for another weak upper
level trough crossing northern NM to produce isolated and light
showers and thunderstorms over portions of western and northern
NM. High temperatures will climb a few to 6 degrees on Tuesday
compared to today`s readings, while varying around 4 degrees
either side of the 30-year average.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 122 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
A ridge of high pressure aloft will build northward over the
forecast area Wednesday and Thursday causing the warming trend to
continue. Thursday and Friday high temperatures will climb a few
to 12 degrees above average. Southwest winds will become gusty
Friday through the weekend as disturbances rotate through a
longwave trough over the western US increasing wind speeds aloft
over NM. The strongest winds are expected Saturday afternoon, when
they could reach over 40 mph mainly over the northern mountains
and northeast. A shortwave trough is forecast to produce
scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms over west central
and northern parts of the forecast area Friday night through
Saturday night as it passes eastward over CO and northern NM. The
northern mountains above 10,000 feet may accumulate their first
light snow accumulation of the season.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms along and east of
the continental divide will move northeastward around 10-15 KT
this afternoon, except for numerous cells along and just east of
the central mountain chain. Scattered to isolated activity will
linger into the evening. A few of today`s stronger cells will be
capable of producing wet microbursts with localized, brief, and
erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Despite drier air filtering over the state starting tonight and
Tuesday, and a ridge of high pressure that will build northward
over NM midweek, minimum humidities are forecast to remain above
15 percent areawide. Southwest winds will become gusty Friday and
Saturday afternoons, with 20-foot winds peaking near 40 mph over
north central and northeast on Saturday. At this time, precip
amounts with the end week storm system look like they will remain
under a tenth of an inch.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  51  77  50  76 /   0   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  37  72  38  75 /   5  10   5   0
Cuba............................  45  71  45  73 /   5  20  10   0
Gallup..........................  42  74  41  75 /   0   5   0   0
El Morro........................  44  72  44  73 /   5  10   5   0
Grants..........................  43  74  44  77 /   5  10   5   0
Quemado.........................  44  74  44  75 /   5   5  10   0
Magdalena.......................  51  72  50  75 /  20  20  10   0
Datil...........................  45  71  44  74 /  20  10  10   0
Reserve.........................  45  78  44  81 /   0   5   5   0
Glenwood........................  50  82  50  85 /   0   5   0   0
Chama...........................  38  66  39  70 /   5  20   5   0
Los Alamos......................  49  69  49  72 /  10  20  20   0
Pecos...........................  46  70  46  73 /  20  10  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  43  69  43  73 /  10   5  10   0
Red River.......................  36  60  37  63 /  20  10  20   0
Angel Fire......................  30  65  32  68 /  20  10  20   0
Taos............................  41  73  41  75 /  10   5  10   0
Mora............................  39  69  41  72 /  20  10  10   0
Espanola........................  47  76  47  79 /  10  10  20   0
Santa Fe........................  49  71  50  73 /  10  10  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  48  74  47  76 /  10  10  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  57  76  57  78 /  20  10   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  54  78  55  80 /  10   5   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  54  80  54  83 /  10   5   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  55  79  55  80 /  10  10   5   0
Belen...........................  52  79  52  82 /  20   5  10   0
Bernalillo......................  54  79  53  82 /  20  10  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  52  79  51  81 /  10   5  10   0
Corrales........................  54  80  54  83 /  20  10   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  53  79  53  81 /  20   5  10   0
Placitas........................  52  74  53  77 /  20  10  10   0
Rio Rancho......................  54  79  54  81 /  20  10   5   0
Socorro.........................  55  80  55  83 /  20  10   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  72  49  74 /  20  10   5   0
Tijeras.........................  51  72  50  75 /  20  10   5   0
Edgewood........................  46  73  46  76 /  20  10   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  44  74  43  78 /  20   5   5   0
Clines Corners..................  47  70  47  73 /  20   5   5   0
Mountainair.....................  48  73  48  75 /  20  10  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  47  72  48  75 /  20  10   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  52  75  54  79 /  30   5   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  47  69  50  72 /  30  10   0   0
Capulin.........................  44  72  45  74 /  30   0   0   0
Raton...........................  44  75  43  78 /  30   0   5   0
Springer........................  44  77  43  80 /  30   0  10   0
Las Vegas.......................  44  72  45  75 /  20   5  10   0
Clayton.........................  52  79  53  83 /  20   0   0   0
Roy.............................  47  75  48  79 /  30   0   5   0
Conchas.........................  52  82  53  86 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  49  77  52  82 /  20   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  50  79  53  85 /  20   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  54  82  56  86 /  20   0   0   0
Portales........................  52  82  55  87 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  52  79  53  85 /  20   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  54  82  55  88 /  20   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  49  78  52  83 /  20   5   0   0
Elk.............................  47  76  49  80 /  30   5   0   0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion