Gulnare, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

079
FXUS65 KPUB 231124
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
524 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Closed low will move across the region bringing periods of showers
  to parts of the region mainly this afternoon.
- Best chance of thunderstorms will be over the southern
  mountains pushing out onto the greater Raton Mesa region this
  afternoon.
- Frost likely in the San Luis Valley tonight with a few areas
  reaching to 30F
- Below normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected for
  Wednesday, with a warmup likely through the second half of the
  week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Today through this Evening...
An mid level low pressure system over NW Colorado early this morning
will track in a general easterly direction and should be located
near the CO/NE/KS border by early this evening. This system will
bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to parts of the region
today. At this time the brunt of heavier precip will occur north of
the region, however as a 2ndry cool front and short wave rotates
around this low pressure area, a cluster of storms is likely to form
over the southern mountains later this afternoon and then push
across the Raton Mesa region this evening. Some locally heavy rain
is expected and a few strong storms may occur producing locally
gusty winds and small hail. Another area of showers and storms will
likely occur across northern El Paso county and Teller county this
afternoon and early evening. Over the remainder of the region,
scattered showers and storms are possible,with the best chance of
measurable precip occurring late this afternoon and evening.
It should be noted that during this morning, not much in the way of
precip is anticipated across the entire region (the best chances
will be over the central mtns and N El Paso and N Teller county)
It will be much cooler today region-wide. Max temps across the
plains will only reach the L70s. with 60s across El Paso county. The
Valleys will see temps in the 50s and 60s, with 40s and 50s mtns.
Highest elevations will see max temps only in the 30s.
For later Tonight...
The contdvd region should dry out prior to midnight with dry
conditions during the early morning hours anticipated. Over the S
mtn areas only isolate precip is anticipated while the far eastern
plains will see scattered showers during the late evening and early
morning hours. The precip should move out of the entire area towards
sunrise.
With clearing skies and cold temps aloft, good radiational cooling
will occur in the San Luis valley, and min temps will fall into the
30-35F range over a good part of the valley. For this reason, and
Frost Advisory has been issued. Some ground fog could occur in the
valley tonight. /Hodanish
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Tomorrow..
We remain in cool and dry northerly flow aloft throughout the day on
Wednesday, as a blocking pattern sets up over the western conus. In
this pattern, we`ll sit on the eastern periphery of the ridge for
Wednesday, allowing for well below normal temperatures and clearing
sky conditions. Our plains look to remain in the 60s and low 70s for
high temperatures, with 60s for mountain valleys, and 40s and 50s
for higher terrain locations. We`ll see a very slight chance for
some isolated showers and thunderstorms over the southern mountains,
with dry conditions persisting elsewhere. Frost will also be
possible over the San Luis Valley both Wednesday morning, and again
Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Wednesday Night and Thursday..
Apart from frost chances across the San Luis Valley first thing in
the morning, impactful weather conditions are not expected for this
forecast period. Models keep the blocking pattern over the region,
with the ridge axis more overhead than Wednesday, as a low tries to
push onshore over California. Daytime highs look to climb back up to
seasonal normals on Thursday for most locations under mostly clear
skies. This will mean highs in the 70s for mountain valleys and the
Pikes Peak region, with low 80s elsewhere on the plains.
Friday Onwards..
Ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement with bringing the low
down south into the Baja Peninsula by Friday afternoon, before
eventually ejecting it out into the desert southwest through the
weekend. Models show very little agreement, however, with the path
that the low could take once it does eject out towards the four
corners region. The Canadian keeps a closed low to our southwest
heading into Sunday evening, with the GFS favoring a more open wave,
and the EC showing a negatively tilted trough with significant rain
chances for Monday and Tuesday. No matter the end result, it seems
that Friday will bring above normal temperatures with dry
conditions. Saturday and Sunday will likely see more near normal
temperatures, along with the return of showers and thunderstorms
over and near the higher terrain. A cool down and increased chance
for more widespread precipitation chances may be likely by the time
we get to the beginning of next week or so.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Showery weather with quite a bit of clouds will occur at the taf
sites today. Overall expect VFR conditions but we may see some
periods of mvfr at all 3 taf sites as brief heavier showers move
through. Winds at KCOS and Kpub should primarily come from at
northerly component today and will be gusty at times.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ069>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...HODANISH

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion