Hamlin, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

944
FXUS61 KBUF 061814
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
214 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool weather with periodic lake effect rain showers will persist
tonight through Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Drier weather
arrives Monday as high pressure builds over the region, with a
warming trend then emerging through midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Water vapor imagery shows a long wave trough centered over the
Northern Plains/Mid-West with multiple shortwave troughs cycling
through the Great Lakes region. A cold front is co-located with a
plume of deep moisture well to our east. Rain will exit the North
Country today and widely scattered showers will remain across the
region into early evening.
The core of the 500mb cold pool will move by to our northwest
tonight through Sunday. Temperatures at 850mb will continue to fall
to +3 to +5C range across the forecast area and provide support for
lake effect showers. After a brief period of mostly dry weather this
evening, moisture will increase ahead of an approaching shortwave
trough. A southwest flow will become well aligned in the boundary
layer and showers will develop east-northeast of the Lakes
overnight. Rainfall amounts will be localized with most areas seeing
little to nothing and lakeshore locations seeing up to 0.25". The
flow will then direct the showers east-southeast through Sunday.
Rainfall amounts will be localized east of Lake Ontario with
locations on the northern Tug Hill seeing around 0.25". A few
rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out close to the lakeshores Sunday
morning. Moisture gets striped away Sunday afternoon. Most of the
shower activity will be east of the Lakes with little to nothing
elsewhere. Prepare for another autumn-like day Sunday, with highs in
the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep longwave troughing draped from eastern Canada to the Great
Lakes and Northeast will gradually flatten and recede back north of
the Canadian border in the Sunday night-Monday night time frame...
while sprawling surface-based ridging builds from the Midwest to New
England. Lingering cyclonic flow and moisture will help keep the
chance of some lake effect rain showers east-southeast of Lake
Ontario Sunday night...with increasing drying/subsidence attendant
to the surface ridge then bringing an end to these Monday morning.
Outside of the above...our region can expect dry weather and mainly
clear skies to predominate through Monday night...along with
generally light winds. This will result in prime conditions for
radiational cooling both Sunday and Monday nights...with this
potentially enough to result in the development of some patchy frost
across far interior portions of the Southern Tier and North Country
on both occasions. With this in mind...have undercut blended
guidance somewhat to better account for this possibility. In
between...highs will remain confined to the mid-upper 60s (with
lower 60s across the higher terrain) on Monday.
Tuesday through Wednesday the core of the surface ridge will slide
across the Canadian Maritimes and out to sea...with lingering weaker
ridging extending back southwestward to the New England and mid-
Atlantic States. This will result in a continuation of fair dry
weather... with the combination of ongoing airmass modification and
modest warm air advection helping temperatures to rebound back to
near normal levels.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The beginning of this period will feature the passage of a cold
front sometime between later Wednesday night and Thursday...as the
large-scale trough over eastern Canada briefly reamplifies. This
being said...this next front looks to only be accompanied by very
limited moisture...which should result in it passing through our
region with little fanfare. Following its passage...Canadian high
pressure will settle back across the Great Lakes and Northeast
through the rest of the period. This will result in more fair dry
weather...with somewhat cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday
perhaps starting to give way to some limited warming on Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue across the forecast area through this
evening. Cold air aloft and increasing moisture will support
developing lake effect showers east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
late tonight through Sunday. MVFR conditions are possible within the
lake effect activity, mainly across KART late tonight and KJHW late
tonight through Sunday morning. Instability will increase Sunday and
additional cumulus clouds will form across the region. There could
be an isolated thunderstorm, mainly close to the Lakes Sunday
morning.
Outlook...
Sunday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers, especially east of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.
Monday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and MVFR east of Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario.
Tuesday through Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will pick up on Lake Erie later this afternoon into this
evening with a window of marginal SCA conditions.
After winds on Lake Erie relax late this evening, winds on both
lakes will strengthen again early Sunday with another round of
Small Craft conditions likely into Sunday night. With the cool
airmass overhead, lake effect rain showers, thunderstorms, and
waterspouts will also be possible at times. The primary
timeframe of concern for these will be tonight through Sunday
morning.
High pressure building over the lakes will cause winds to subside
Sunday night into Monday, becoming light by Monday evening.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ040-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HSK/PP
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/PP

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion