Hamshire, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

627
FXUS64 KLCH 301756
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1256 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High pressure aloft will keep a dry air mass in place through
  midweek with no chance for rain, very warm days, and mild
  nights.
- An slight increase in moisture to go along with a developing
  upper level disturbance will bring a small chance for rain late
  in the week into this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
The upper ridge centered south of the central Gulf Coast is
breaking down and slightly pushing westward, however flow aloft is
and still will be out of the northwest. As a result, dry air will
remain aloft. By late Thursday, we will see heights fall along the
central to eastern Gulf Coast with a weakness forming.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
A pattern shift will continue into the long term period as the
surface high progressively loses its influence and heights aloft
fall. Winds at the surface will become more easterly, with
moisture slowly seeping back into the region. This, in
combination with the weakness forming over the Gulf, will
introduce isolated to scattered showers back into the forecast for
the rest of the long term period. Models are still not in
agreement with the placement of the upper weakness, however there
seems to be a bit of consensus that it will be over or around the
central Gulf Coast to SE States. This will play a part in what
areas will have the highest rainfall probabilities. Currently NBM
is favoring the former, giving our coastal area the highest PoPs.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions will persist past the end of this forecast period.
Winds will be light and variable, with cloud cover increasing
through the rest of the day.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Surface high pressure ridging down into the coastal waters through
mid week will keep a light to occasionally modest offshore flow to
go along with mainly low seas. By the end of the week, the surface
high will be ridging down from the Mid-Atlantic area, producing more
of an easterly flow. No significant chance of shower activity is
noted through mid week, with shower activity increasing toward the
end of the week with an upper level disturbance developing over the
northern Gulf.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
A dry air mass will remain in place with no significant chance
for rainfall through midweek. Afternoon minimum relative humidity
values are expected to be between 30 and 45 percent today and
Wednesday. Surface winds will remain from mainly the north and
northeast at less than 10 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  92  66  90 /   0   0   0  20
LCH  69  92  69  90 /   0   0   0  30
LFT  67  91  70  89 /   0   0   0  30
BPT  69  92  69  90 /   0   0   0  20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion