Haskell, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

068
FXUS64 KTSA 200545
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- Above average temperatures through the weekend and into early
   next week before a cool-down to near or below seasonal average by
   midweek.
- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will continue this weekend
   and much of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday and Saturday Night)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A cluster of storms, currently ongoing across south/southwest KS
will likely be ongoing across northeast OK and far northwest AR by
sunrise this morning. Isolated strong to severe storms will be
possible in this cluster of storms this morning, with damaging wind
gusts being the primary threat and isolated large hail being a
secondary threat. Additionally, consensus in CAM guidance indicate
the storms may train and produce pockets of heavy rainfall, with
pockets of 2 to 3+ inches possible, which may lead to flooding and
isolated flash flooding. These storms are expected to become
somewhat less organized, but should remain intact with a flooding
threat through the late morning and perhaps the early afternoon
hours across far northeast OK and far northwest AR as modest to
strong warm air advection fuels the storms. Resultant outflow
boundaries from the morning storms may generate additional showers
and thunderstorms by early-mid afternoon, as well.
A secondary mid-level shortwave trough will eject off the Rockies by
midday, with the trough axis positioned just west of the forecast
area by mid-late afternoon. While cloud cover will remain fairly
thick through the morning and into the afternoon over far northeast
OK and far northwest AR, much less cloud cover is expected southwest
of a line between Tulsa and Fort Smith by midday. This will allow
strong daytime heating (lower-90s) and destabilization ahead of the
approaching shortwave trough, above a very moist airmass, and will
lead to isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop by mid-
afternoon. A few storms may develop in the forecast area in eastern
OK, but majority of the storms will move into the CWA from
central/south-central OK. One limiting factor with regards to the
severe potential will be relatively weak deep bulk shear (20-25
knots), with weak mid-level winds. However, pockets of stronger bulk
shear may cause a few strong to marginally severe storms. And once
again, heavy rainfall with stronger and training storms may lead to
nuisance flooding and isolated flash flooding in spots. Lastly, CAMs
and global models continue to hint at nighttime cluster of
storms/MCS development near the OK/KS and MO/AR borders during the
evening and overnight hours Saturday night into Sunday morning,
which may also carry a limited severe and flooding risk.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Widespread storm chances will persist Sunday into Monday as a mid-
level trough axis gradually moves across the area and a more zonal
flow regime transpires aloft behind it. There is still numerous
discrepancies in forecast models with regards to the synoptic
pattern next week, especially by mid-late week. A series of
shortwave troughs/perturbations caught in the zonal flow will
maintain moderate-high (40-80%) precipitation chances Monday and
Tuesday before its parent upper-level trough/low develops over the
Rockies and moves across the Central Plains by midweek. Models
continue to suggest a surface cold front moving through the forecast
area sometime Tuesday evening/night into Wednesday morning, with
lots of uncertainty at this time with exact timing. Rain chances are
expected to slowly decrease by the tail-end of the workweek as the
mid/upper-level low shifts east of the area, though weather
conditions will be highly be dependent on exact track and position
of the upper-level low. Overall, the long-term period, especially
Wednesday-Friday, is still highly uncertain at this time. However,
confidence is high enough to state that the pattern is trending to
be wetter and much cooler than this past week has been. Better
details to come in later forecast updates.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
The main impact over the TAF period will be numerous chances for
showers and thunderstorms across the area. A complex of storms is
expected to approach NE OK sites this morning and eventually track
eastward into NW AR by mid to late morning. Reduced VSBY will be
noted in any storms along with lighting impacts at terminals. A
lull in activity is expected from late morning through early
afternoon before another round of scattered thunderstorms becomes
possible mainly across E OK with more storms possible across NW AR
sites by the mid to late evening. Exact timing and location is
very hard to pin down in this pattern and while storms will not
affect sites at all times, chances are there throughout the
period, especially across NE OK sites. Winds will generally
remain light out of the south outside of any storm induced
impacts. Cigs should remain VFR as well through the period.
Bowlan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  86  69 /  60  40  50  60
FSM   91  69  90  70 /  20  20  30  40
MLC   92  68  88  70 /  20  20  50  50
BVO   86  64  84  65 /  70  50  60  60
FYV   85  64  86  65 /  60  40  40  50
BYV   80  64  85  65 /  60  60  50  50
MKO   91  67  87  68 /  40  30  50  50
MIO   81  64  84  65 /  80  60  60  60
F10   92  66  87  67 /  20  30  50  50
HHW   91  67  89  69 /  10  10  30  30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...04

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion