Heathrow, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

658
FXUS62 KMLB 230614
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
214 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through
  mid-week with long period swells from distant Hurricane
  Gabrielle.
- Increased shower and lightning storm chances through mid-week
  as deeper moisture arrives over central Florida.
- Slightly above normal high temperatures for the interior
  through Friday reaching into the lower 90s each afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Current-Tonight...Confidence low but will monitor early this morning
for some patchy fog development across portions of Lake and
northwest Volusia counties. Favorable parameters for this would
include moisture near the surface, light winds and only some
scattered thin high cloudiness. Weak high pressure residing across
the mid Atlc States and WRN Atlc is forecast to expand southward
across the SE U.S. and FL peninsula over the next 24 hours.
Light/variable winds this morning surrounding a weak pressure
gradient will allow for the ECSB to form and move well inland this
afternoon/evening.
While the moisture gradient was pretty tight across the central
peninsula on Mon, deep moisture (PWATs 2.00-2.30") is forecast to
overspread all of ECFL today. Coupled with modest H500 temps
(-7.0C to 7.5C) and weak shortwave impulses, expect PoP ranges of
40-70pct, with greatest chances near the Orlando metro southward
toward the Treasure Coast and Lake Okee. Initial storm development
is expected along the sea breeze near the coast and will consist
of ISOLD to WDLY SCT convection. Storm steering may be of a light
WRLY component, but numerous expected boundary collisions this
afternoon/evening will allow for erratic movement of cells.
Primary lightning storm impacts will be occasional to frequent
lightning strikes, gusty winds locally up to around 45 mph in
strongest storms, and locally heavy downpours which could induce
minor/nuisance flooding. Activity will diminish thru mid evening.
Warm and humid conditions continue with highs in the U80s to around
90F near the coast and 90F to L90s inland. Peak heat indices will
approach 98-103F ahead of any potential shower or storm development.
Overnight low temperatures remain mild in the L-M70s.
Long period swell (~11 sec) from distant Major Hurricane Gabrielle
continues across the local Atlc waters and coastline. This will
promote numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents at ALL
central FL Atlc beaches. Nice weather can be deceiving, and entering
the rough and dangerous surf is not advised! The HIGH rip current
threat is expected to persist through mid-week.
Wed-Fri...By late in the period a weakening mid-level trough will
push toward the Gulf Coast States and FL peninsula. Fairly deep
moisture will persist across the area each day thru Thu, with
potential for some drier air moving into the area briefly Thu
overnight and early Fri. There will be some subtle "troughiness"
with associated mid-level vorticies present to aid daily diurnal
convection. At the surface, weak ridging persists across ECFL with a
weak surface front pushing into the Panhandle and north FL late Fri
& overnight. Modest precip chances 40-60pct on Wed/Thu and a bit
lower 40-50pct for Fri. Max temps reach the U80s to L90s each day
and possibly a few M90s across the northwest interior on Wed. We
will still realize peak afternoon heat indices between 100-105F. Low
temps range from the L-M70s.
Sat-Tue...The aforementioned mid-level trough will move into north-
central FL late Sat with recent medium range models suggesting this
system slows down and cuts-off across the southeast U.S./north Gulf.
What is more certain is that an unsettled weather pattern will
result with likely (60pct) PoPs on Sat and scattered (40-50pct)
showers and storms each day/evening thereafter. PoPs could realize a
bit lower late in the weekend and early next week depending on
amount of dry air pushing down the peninsula on the back-side of the
closed low - should this scenario play out. High temps in the
U80s to L90s on Sat, then U80s to around 90F Sun-Tue. Peak heat
indices a bit lower than recent days. Lows remain consistent and
mild in the L-M70s.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Today-Sat...The persistent long period ERLY swell from distant
Hurricane Gabrielle continues into mid-week, before gradually
diminishing into late week. Weak high pressure will take up
residency across the local waters. The pressure gradient remains
weak with wind speeds AOB 15 kts outside of convection.
Light/variable winds will become onshore each afternoon as the sea
breeze develops and pushes inland. The long period swell could be
hazardous at inlets again today during the outgoing tide. Seas
build 4-5 ft near shore and 5-6 ft offshore where Cautionary
Statements are in place (perhaps into this evening). Wave heights
then diminish further mid to late week. Scattered showers and
lightning storms are forecast across the local waters each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period, with afternoon TS
chances ranging from near normal south along the Treasure Coast to
below normal north from KDAB-KLEE. Chances for VIS reductions to
or below MVFR at KLEE early this morning less than 20%, and TAF
remains VFR. Light/VRB winds shift Erly 5-10 kts at the ECSB
pushes through, initially developing between 16Z-18Z, with a
collision near KLEE and just west of KMCO/area terminals late in
the evening after 22Z. Moisture decreases from south to north,
which combined with inland progression of the ECSB, keeps highest
afternoon-evening TS chances west and south of the ECFL terminals.
Going to punt TEMPOs to the 12Z package due to continued low
confidence for more than brief TS impacts, but keeping a close
eye on model trends along the Treasure Coast and at KMCO/KISM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  74  89  73 /  30  20  30  20
MCO  92  75  93  75 /  50  30  60  20
MLB  88  76  89  75 /  40  30  40  20
VRB  90  75  89  74 /  60  20  50  20
LEE  92  75  93  74 /  40  30  50  20
SFB  91  75  92  74 /  40  30  50  20
ORL  91  75  92  76 /  50  30  60  20
FPR  90  74  89  73 /  60  20  50  20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Haley

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion