Helmic, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

633
FXUS64 KHGX 111721
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1221 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
- Summer-like temperatures return through the weekend with high
  temperatures mainly in the mid-90s with isolated readings
  reaching the upper 90s on Friday.
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible near the
  coast through Thursday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
We got a trough to the left, and a trough to the right, so
everything between is all sunny and bright! The forecast for rest of
the week is brought to you by the Greek letter Omega . Go ahead and
look at the forecast 500mb chart for 12Z Friday (September 12th) and
you`ll notice the synoptic flow aloft is shaped exactly like an
uppercase omega . With Southeast Texas being in the ridge-y portion
of this omega block, that means our weather will generally be dry.
Now you might be thinking, well why are showers/storms out there
south of I-10 today if it`s supposed to be dry, Mr. Smart Guy?! Well
that`s an excellent question! Today (Thursday), we`re just east
enough of the center of the ridge axis for some embedded shortwaves
to help generate some lift for the in-place moisture. The bulk of
the moisture availability is offshore and closer to the coast, so
this is where rain chances are most probable. We could see
additional showers/storms later this afternoon approach the I-10
corridor along the seabreeze, but the vast majority of convection
today will be coastal and offshore. You can tell moisture has
increased by just being outside and feeling the difference in
humidity compared to early this...but you can also look up and
actually see some clouds overhead as well. A combination of all of
those factors will lead to high temperatures mainly in the low 90s
this afternoon.
Going into Friday, the ridge axis slides a bit eastward as the
eastern upper level trough digs further southward along the eastern
coast of the CONUS. At this point is where the omega block will be
at its peak, which is why rain chances disappear for Friday along
with an uptick in the temperatures. Expect high temperatures on
Friday to top out mainly in the mid 90s, but a few spots may manage
to reach the upper 90s. The main ridge axis remains overhead on
Saturday, but gets squeezed by the western trough trying to advance
eastward into the Northern Plains. This results in the weakening of
the ridge as 500mb heights gradually decrease and it opens the door
for some more embedded shortwaves to pass through the area. This
will lead to rain chances returning along the coast and offshore in
the latter half of the weekend going into early next week. The upper
level ridge may make an attempt at strengthening a bit next week, so
we could see a slight warming trend going into midweek. Otherwise,
expect high temperatures (past Friday) to be in the low to mid 90s
with low temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Yet Another Bonus Space Nugget: If you missed out on Tuesday
evening`s flyover of the International Space Station, no need to
fret! There will be another flyover this evening (Thursday)
beginning at 7:52pm CDT. It will appear from the west-southwestern
horizon, be visible for 6 minutes, and disappear in the north-
northeastern horizon with a maximum height of 42. Sky cover should
be on a decreasing trend going into the evening hours, so we should
all have good viewing conditions if you want to wave at some
astronauts!
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 504 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Isolated patchy fog early this morning should burn off shortly
after sunrise. VFR conditions prevailing today with light
northeast winds shifting east to southeast this afternoon. Early
Friday morning may see more isolated patchy fog in the usual fog-
prone locations (KCXO/KLBX) with brief periods of MVFR to IFR FLs
possible leading up to sunrise.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Light to occasionally moderate easterly winds will prevail through
Friday. Wind speeds are expected to be sustained around 15 kt with
gusts up to 20 kt going into Thursday night, so small craft should
exercise caution in the Gulf waters through that time period.
Matagorda Bay will be borderline on the caution flag threshold
through Thursday evening. Scattered showers and storms mainly over
the Gulf waters and extending to coastal areas will persist into the
evening hours. There will be a lull in shower/storm chances on
Friday and most of Saturday before they return on Sunday and extend
into next week. Expect seas to remain generally in the 2-4 ft
range going into next week.
With an extended periods of an easterly fetch, we are still
anticipating higher than normal tides likely extending into next
week. Thursday morning`s high tide peaked at 3.1 ft above MLLW at
the Galveston Bay Entrance. Mariners can expect water levels to peak
in the 3.0-3.4 ft above MLLW range during high tide going into next
week.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  94  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  74  94  74  94 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  81  89  80  89 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 11 PM CDT this evening
     for GMZ350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion