Hermon, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

036
FXUS61 KBTV 291836
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
236 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass through tomorrow completely dry and
cloudless, but it will drop temperatures by around ten degrees. The
cooler airmass will persist through mid-week, and patchy frost is
expected in a lot of places overnight. A warming trend will
subsequently send temperatures well above climatological normals
heading into the weekend. No rain is expected until next week at the
earliest.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 219 PM EDT Monday...High pressure builds down from the north
Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing with it a cooler and drier
airmass. Any technical front moves through Tuesday, but it will come
through dry and without clouds, so it will only be noticed by a wind
shift. Ahead of the front today and tonight, temperatures will be
relatively warm. Temperatures will climb into the upper 70s and low
80s this afternoon. There will be abundant sunshine for most areas,
though parts of Vermont will see some high clouds that are blowing
off Imelda and riding up along a stationary front. There will be
continued low-level flow tonight, but it should be just high and
weak enough that decent radiational cooling should occur, and patchy
fog will likely develop in the most protected valleys late in the
night. Highs will be around ten degrees cooler tomorrow due to the
front passing through. Relative humidities dropping to around thirty
percent and winds gusting in the 10-25 mph range will create some
fire weather concerns, but conditions are expected to stay below
critical thresholds. While temperatures will drop into the 30s and
40s most places tomorrow night, continuing wind from the advection
and some possible cloud cover should prevent much frost formation,
even in areas that fall to around freezing.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 219 PM EDT Monday...High pressure will build almost
directly overhead Wednesday into Wednesday night. Temperatures
will have a fall like feel with highs in the 50s and low 60s.
Some cloud cover is possible over the higher terrain, but there
is still some model uncertainty on how much moisture will be
around. The gradient flow will diminish Wednesday night and
ideal radiational cooling conditions should develop by late in
the night. Therefore, with a cool airmass in place, patchy frost
is possible in most areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 219 PM EDT Monday...Large dome of high pressure will begin to
shift offshore. The ridge axis on the western periphery will extend
well westward, though. Even as that ridge shifts south and stretches
out latitudinally, none of the vorts will really dig against
channeled upper level flow. Ridging will remain favored in the
presence of two stronger vorts across the intermountain west and in
northern Canada. The way everything angles, we lack a connection to
any real moisture feed at any given time, and we`ll be far away from
any meaningful weather disturbance. Zonal flow means that we pick up
dry, continental air. One system will fly by on Sunday within the
channeled flow, but unless it trends farther south, then we won`t
see any of that rain. Even if we did, it is moving so quickly that
we will not receive much rain anyway. The next chance for rain will
be tied to those two western vort maxes coming eastward. However,
it`s already looking likely, based on probabilistic guidance, that
despite the increasing southwesterly flow with subtropical moisture
lifting north that we`ll likely (80% chance less than 0.25") miss
out on broader scale precipitation associated with this. This is not
good news for our ongoing drought and fire weather, but for overall
recreation for this time of year, it will be very pleasant. Thursday
will still be coolish with slightly below normal highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s, and then we climb back well into the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Mostly clear skies are expected with perhaps a
few thin high clouds from the south at or above 20000 ft agl. Fog is
likely to develop tonight, but there will be a few limiting factors.
One will be 10-20 knot winds between 1000-2000 ft agl, and the other
will be a surface front shifting south between about 08z and 13z
Tuesday with a well-defined wind shift, which could disrupt
persistent fog. For now, will highlight some 4SM BR TEMPOs from
about 06z to 10z before the wind shift at KSLK and KMPV. Mostly
clear skies expected tomorrow, and after 13z, breezy north winds
will develop at 7 to 12 knots sustained with gusts 15 to 23 knots,
with the highest values in the Champlain Valley.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion