Highfalls, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

101
FXUS62 KRAH 202351
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
750 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak backdoor cold front moving south through the region will
settle south of North Carolina tonight. High pressure centered to
our north will extend down the Mid Atlantic region Sunday through
Monday, before weakening and pushing offshore Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Saturday...
* Mostly dry backdoor cold front will reach the region this evening.
* A few isolated showers may be possible this afternoon, with the
  best chance in the southern Piedmont.
* Above normal temperatures continue.
Based on the 17Z observations and satellite, it appears that the
backdoor cold front is located in central VA. Over the next several
hours it will continue to move southward into central NC. While the
frontal passage should be dry, a few isolated showers/potential
thunderstorms may be possible ahead of the front, with the best
chance in the southern Piedmont where instability appears to be
maximized this afternoon. Currently, a few showers/storms are
already starting to develop in northern SC. Tonight, behind the
front, areas of fog and low stratus look to spread into the region
from the northeast.
Temperatures should be up to 5 degrees above normal today. This
afternoon expect maximum temperatures around the mid 80s in the
north to the upper 80s in the south. Temperatures overnight look to
dip into the low 60s areawide, with perhaps a few locations dipping
into the upper 50s in the coolest spots.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Saturday...
* Warm and dry day expected.
Surface high pressure will build back in on Sunday. This should
allow central NC to return to a dry period, with no rain expected on
Sunday. Temperatures Sunday should be slightly cooler than today,
with highs expected in the low 80s in the north to the mid 80s in
the south. Lows overnight should dip into the upper 50s to low 60s.
Sunday night another area of low stratus and/or fog will be
possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 PM Saturday...
At the beginning of Monday, surface high pressure will be centered
over Massachusetts with a ridge extending southwest into the
Carolinas. A surface low will be over the Dakotas with a stationary
front extending east towards the Great Lakes. At upper levels, a
trough over the northern Rockies will move southeast, eventually
merging with an upper low over the western Great Lakes mid-week
across the Plains. The merging of the upper level features will help
intensify the surface low as it slowly pushes east.
Locally, Monday and Tuesday will be dry as the surface high remains
along the East Coast. As the upper low merges and moves into the
central Plains, the chance for rain should expand eastward into
North Carolina late Wednesday, but the better chances for rain
arrive later in the week, with Friday currently being the day with
the highest chances for showers.
As the surface wind changes from having a northerly component on
Monday to a southerly component Tuesday and Wednesday, highs will
slowly increase through the week, with widespread 80s and a few 90
degree readings on Wednesday. As more cloud cover moves in along
with showers later in the week, highs will then decrease, ranging
from the mid 70s to the low 80s by Saturday. Lows will generally be
in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 750 PM Saturday...
VFR conditions are present across central NC, as this afternoon`s
isolated showers and storms over the central/southern Piedmont have
dissipated. But confidence is increasing that we`ll have development
of IFR/LIFR cigs and MVFR to briefly IFR/LIFR vsbys overnight,
affecting all central NC TAF sites, although the highest confidence
is at RWI/RDU/GSO. IFR/LIFR stratus is expected to spread into the
area from the NE, reaching TAF sites between 07z and 10z, and
persisting until around 13z-15z. While surface fog should be
somewhat limited with mostly MVFR vsbys, any LIFR cigs should result
in a period of IFR/LIFR vsbys. The low clouds should lift and
disperse during the mid to late morning, resulting in VFR conditions
at all TAF sites by 16z, prevailing through the end of the TAF valid
period. Surface winds will be light from the E or NE, under 10 kts.
Looking beyond 00z Sun, there is a good chance of sub-VFR conditions
(mostly low cigs with areas of fog) 07z-13z both Sunday morning and
Monday morning, then lower chance early Tuesday and Wednesday. The
chance for scattered showers and storms will increase by Wednesday
night and especially Thursday. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Helock
SHORT TERM...Helock
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Hartfield

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion