Highview, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

633
FXUS63 KLMK 181951
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
351 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
*  Continued dry and abnormally warm weather expected to continue
   into the start of the weekend.
*  Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected into
   the weekend. With Afternoon RH values ranging from the mid 20s to
   near 30, elevated fire weather threat remains.
*  Rain chances return Sunday through mid next week. General light
   rain spread out from late Sunday to Thursday morning will range
   from about an inch or less across central KY and southern IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Weather will remain quiet through the short term as weak ridging and
sfc high pressure over the region continue to keep things dry.
Current visible satellite image shows some sparsely scattered Cu over
mostly eastern KY this afternoon, other than that it will remain
unseasonably warm as temperatures this afternoon have already
climbed into the mid/upper 80s. Thanks to afternoon mixing, dew
points were dry in the low 50s resulting in low RH values near 30
percent, continuing to keep the fire weather threat elevated.
Overnight, any clouds that managed to form will dissipate and clear
as winds will be very light to nearly calm. While we are
unseasonably warm during the day our temperatures overnight will
cool to near seasonal normal lows in the low 60s.
It will be another mostly dry and unseasonably warm day for the end
of the week tomorrow. Ridging aloft will start to break down and
flatten over the Ohio Valley as a stacked system featuring a closed
upper low and associated sfc low over the Dakotas will slowly push
eastward towards the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes through
the forecast period. Associated shortwave trough and vort max will
work from the central Plains towards eastern KY during the day
tomorrow. Any activity that may and work eastward during the day
tomorrow is not likely to hold together as there will be just too
much dry air in place. While some high clouds associated with the
approaching showers and storms could move over central KY and
southern IN, it will remain mostly sunny and unseasonably warm.
Highs will once again be in the upper 80s to low 90s or about ten
degrees above seasonal normals. We will also see another afternoon
of drier air mixing down to the surface during the afternoon
resulting in lower dewpoints values than guidance with RH values in
the mid to upper 20s keeping the fire weather threat elevated. Winds
will remain light with sustain winds around or less than 5 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Over the weekend, closed upper low will work over the Upper Midwest
and into the Great Lakes as it starts to open up and get absorbed by
the by the main jet over Canada developing a deeper trough over the
Great Lakes into the Mid Mississippi Valley. A few mid-level
disturbances will start to approach the Ohio Valley with one on
Saturday and another on Sunday. Near sfc air remains dry on Saturday
keeping our weather quiet but remaining unseasonably warm with
afternoon temperatures once again in the  upper 80s and low 90s.
Winds will start to shift and become more southerly on Sunday
allowing for more moisture to advect in from the south. It will
remain unseasonably warm in the upper 80s with dewpoints into the
low 60s. Rain chances will begin to increase for the second half of
the weekend as the second mid-level disturbance works into the area.
PoP chances still fairly low for Sunday ranging around 20 percent
during the day with near 40 to 50 percent for the start of the week.
Pattern starts to shift and becomes more zonal over the Ohio Valley
through the middle of the week allowing for a series of disturbances
to work across the region through the middle and into the end of
next week. There remains spatial and temporal differences in the
deterministic models as we get beyond early next week. While each
day features rain chances no one particular day looks to be a
complete washout. Current forecast is suggesting total rainfall from
Sunday night into Thursday morning to be near 1 inch along and west
of I-65 with lesser amounts as you go to the east. Temperatures will
be a bit cooler than the weekend with highs in the mid 80s for
Monday and Tuesday then cooler to near normal by the end of the
week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Sfc high pressure over the region will continue VFR flight
categories through the forecast. Mostly clear skies, some mid-level
Cu is possible this afternoon but FEW to maybe SCT. Winds remain
light and mainly VRB.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ029>031.
     Air Quality Alert from 8 AM Friday to midnight EDT Friday
     night for KYZ029>031.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
     Air Quality Alert from 8 AM Friday to midnight EDT Friday
     night for INZ077>079-090>092.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN

NWS LMK Office Area Forecast Discussion