407 FXUS63 KMKX 261455 AFDMKXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 955 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures and dry weather are expected through the weekend and well into next week.
- Areas of fog, including some dense fog, is forecast for late tonight.
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.UPDATE... Issued 950 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
No change from the previous forecast as weak backdoor cold front slides southward bringing wider spread stratus clouds. Warmest temps in the 70s to lowers 80s continue to be forecast for areas further south toward the WI/IL border that`ll experience more sunshine before the arrival of the front and cloud cover.
Wagner
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.SHORT TERM... Issued 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Today through Saturday:
A Canadian cold front is currently progressing swd from ne WI and nrn Lake MI. The associated sfc trough will weaken today as it shifts ewd so the cold front will slow down, but come off the lake first. It should reach the Sheboygan area around 15Z and Milwaukee around 17-18Z. Some stratus clouds may be along it and behind it for mainly east central WI. High Temps for the day will range from the upper 60s over east central WI to upper 70s to lower 80s over far srn WI and south central WI. Shortwave ridging will quickly follow tnt with the cold front continuing to decay and stall over nrn IL and ne IA. Higher dewpoints along and behind the front will settle over srn WI tnt bringing the potential for areas of fog, some dense.
Another weak sfc trough will then track from MN across the nrn Great Lakes on Sat with the front quickly returning as a warm front. Swly winds, warm advection, and sunshine should boost temps into the lower to middle 80s for Sat afternoon. The trailing weak and dry cold front will then pass Sat nt.
Gehring
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.LONG TERM... Issued 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Saturday night through Thursday:
An upper level ridge will begin to build into the Great Lakes Region behind the exiting trough Saturday night into Sunday. This upper level ridge is expected to sit across the central CONUS into late next week. The large scale subsidence will help keep conditions dry and quiet through the week.
As the sfc, a strong high pressure system in northern Saskatchewan will progress east southeast crossing Hudson Bay into Quebec Tuesday. Until this surface high passes to the east of Wisconsin into Quebec, above normal temperatures will continue. Highs will be above normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s for Sun-Tue, but a little cooler near the lake. Northeast to east winds will then keep temps a little cooler, especially for lakeshore areas for mid to late week.
Looking further into the extended a trough looks to approach from the northern Plains for the weekend. This far out timing is a bit uncertain with the CAN having a more progressive and fast moving trough while the GFS and EURO being slower.
Patterson
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.AVIATION... Issued 950 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Weak backdoor cold is sliding southward across southern WI through the day. Behind the front will be a wider spread stratus deck bringing MVFR/IFR ceilings as seen with SBM. The question is how far south will this lower stratus deck spread, but UES and MKE as well as ENW may experience these lower ceilings over the next few hours into the evening. Will see a northeasterly wind shift behind the front as well but should remain light. Will be a potential for fog overnight given light winds and increased low-level moisture behind the frontal passage into Saturday morning.
Wagner
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.MARINE... Issued 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A weakening Canadian cold front will track from north to south across Lake Michigan through the day. Westerly winds will become northerly, and be a bit breezy over the north half of the lake this morning.
The winds will then veer to easterly later tonight then southerly on Saturday with the passage of a warm front. Another Canadian cold front will then track from north to south across the lake Saturday night with another wind shift to northerly. High pressure around 30.1 inches will then set up over the Upper Great Lakes Sunday and Monday, leading to light and variable winds with a lake breeze each day.
Gehring
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.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. &&
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion