Holbrook, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

749
FXUS65 KFGZ 232322
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
422 PM MST Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Mostly dry conditions are expected through Wednesday
with only some isolated showers in the White Mountains. Unsettled
weather returns for Thursday through the weekend and into early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A dry trough is dropping down from Utah today into
Wednesday, with brief ridging expected for Wednesday. This will
bring mostly dry conditions to the region for a couple of days.
Temperatures will remain mild with some breezy northeasterly winds,
especially for areas southwest of the higher terrain. Some lingering
moisture in the White Mountains has allowed for a few isolated
showers/storms to develop. These should dissipate fairly quickly
this evening.
The ridge doesn`t last long and is squeezed between the trough to
the east and a cutoff low to the west. The cutoff low moves
inland and drops to the south-southeast on Thursday into Friday.
This will allow for good moisture return from the Gulf of
California and a with upper level dry air and cold temperatures,
along with some available shear, we will see a return to daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Though we have increased
confidence in there being showers and thunderstorms, the track of
the low and the dynamics associated with it are still up for
debate so while there may be some strong to severe storms,
confidence in what areas are at the greatest risk remains on the
lower side of the spectrum. The moisture pull appears to be plenty
deep and QPF values are already showing into the 0.5"-1.0" range,
mainly across portions of Gila County, eastern Mogollon Rim, and
the White Mountains. The potential for heavy rainfall is there and
there may be an increased chance for flash flooding. A Flash
Flood Watch may be needed, especially for later in the week.
Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread on Friday
but as the low shifts further south, it may start to limit the
storm potential as we go through weekend and into early next week.
Still some kinks to work out in this forecast so be sure to stay
tuned for updates.
&&
.AVIATION...Wednesday 24/00Z through Thursday 25/00Z...VFR
conditions. Winds N-E 5-10 kts, with locally gusty NE winds downwind
of the terrain in excess of 20 kts overnight.
OUTLOOK...Thursday 25/00Z through Saturday 27/00Z...Mainly VFR. SCT -
SHRA/-TSRA possible each day, most numerous over the higher terrain.
Brief periods of MVFR possible in areas of SHRA/TSRA. Winds S/SE 5-
10 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...An isolated thunderstorm is
possible over the White Mountains Wednesday, otherwise it will be
dry.  On Thursday shower and thunderstorm chances increase as a
cutoff Low sets up off the southern California coast.  Showers and
thunderstorms may continue overnight Thursday into Friday morning.
Daytime winds NE-E 5-15 mph on Wednesday, becoming S 5-15kts
Thursday.  Minimum RH values 15-25% Wednesday, increasing to 20-35%
on Thursday.
Friday through Sunday...Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are possible throughout the period as the cutoff Low off the
California coast moves through the area. Daytime winds generally S-
SW at 10-15 mph.  Minimum RH values 30-35% in the desert regions to
50-60% in the forests and higher elevation regions.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion