Holly Park, California Weather Forecast Discussion

218
FXUS66 KLOX 060112
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
612 PM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...05/113 PM.
A low pressure system over the West will keep cooler than normal
conditions in place through at least Wednesday. Light rain is
possible in Los Angeles County on Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...05/125 PM.
The quiet weather pattern is expected to continue at least through
mid week as a weak low pressure system sits off the Central Coast
before moving inland Wednesday. In the meantime, daytime highs
will be slightly below normal, but with a slow warming trend
Monday and Tuesday. With the upper low moving inland Wednesday
most areas will see a degree or two of cooling but otherwise no
big changes. The marine layer has been very slow to return but
forecast soundings do finally show a developing marine inversion
that should lead to increasing morning low clouds the next couple
days, some of which may poke into the lower coastal valleys for a
few hours.
.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...05/154 PM.
Following the departure of the upper low on Wednesday heights will
begin a steady climb through Friday as high pressure builds north
through the desert southwest. With onshore flow remaining on the
lighter side and a lowering marine inversion, highs in most areas
are expected to warm at least a few degrees and possibly as much
as 10 degrees across some interior areas.
However, there are a couple of significant complicating factors
later this week that will play a role in the forecast. Tropical
storm Priscilla is expected to march up the Baja coast later this
week. At the same time another unseasonably cold upper low
(557dam, below the 5th percentile based on climatology) will drop
down the West coast. Most of the ensemble solutions bring the low
as far south as KSFO Saturday before moving inland. The timing and
track of this low will certainly have an impact on the track of
Priscilla as it moves up the Baja coast. Models have clearly been
struggling with this interaction and whether there will be enough
northward push to bring rain into southern California and
particularly our forecast area. The latest iteration of models
seems to lean slightly towards the wetter side locally, but with
the most impactful weather remains well south and east of LA
County.
&&
.AVIATION...06/0110Z.
Around 2315Z, the marine layer depth was around 1400 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the inversion was near 2600 feet with a
temperature near 22 degrees Celsius.
High confidence in the current forecast for desert terminals.
Moderate confidence in the current forecast for coastal and valley
terminals. There is a moderate to high chance of LIFR to IFR
conditions at coastal terminals north of Point Conception and IFR
to MVFR conditions for coastal and valley terminals south of Point
Conception after 03Z and continuing through at least 16Z. There
is a low-to-moderate chance of MVFR conditions lingering at
coastal terminals south of Point Conception until as late as 22Z.
KLAX...There is a 30 percent chance of IFR to MVFR conditions
after 04Z, increasing to 50 percent around 07Z. Highest confidence
exists in MVFR conditions. VFR conditions could develop as soon as
16Z, or as late as 21Z. Any easterly winds should be less than 7
knots.
KBUR...There is a 20 percent chance of IFR to MVFR conditions
after 10Z, increasing to 40 percent around 13Z. Highest
confidence exists in IFR conditions, but there is a 10 percent
chance of LIFR conditions for up to two hours after arrival. VFR
conditions could develop as soon as 16Z, or as late as 18Z. No
wind impacts are expected at this time.
&&
.MARINE...05/158 PM.
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds across the outer waters
and nearshore waters along the Central Coast have dropped off
earlier this morning, some choppy, short-period waves may linger
through this afternoon. Conditions are likely to remain below SCA
criteria through mid- week.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions
should generally remain below SCA criteria through the beginning
of the week. Then, there is a 20-40% chance for SCA level winds
Thursday and Friday evening.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Phillips/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion