Holst, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

142
FXUS63 KFGF 022346
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
646 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near record breaking warmth through Saturday.
- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Widespread rain
  is forecasted Saturday night through Sunday across portions
  of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Skies are mostly clear with very warm, summer-like temperatures
continuing through the evening. There is a low chance (20%) in
isolated showers and weak thunderstorms in the northern Devils
Lake basin this evening. There is also a low chance (20%) in fog
developing around sunrise in portions of lakes country near
central and north-central Minnesota. Should fog form, it is
likely to more of the shallow, patchy variety versus widespread
and thick.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...Synopsis...
Meandering surface trough is washing out over Lakes Country this
afternoon, bringing with it a southerly to westerly wind shift.
Clear skies have lead to another warm day, with widespread low
to mid 80s across the region early this afternoon.
Looking upstream, a large trough over the Pacific Coast will be the
catalyst for more active and unsettled weather as it propagates
eastward over the weekend. An area of low pressure will form in
the lee of the Rockies Friday night into Saturday, tracking
from the Nebraska Panhandle northeastward to the Northern Red
River Valley by midday Sunday. This system will initially bring
thunderstorms and widespread rainfall, with much cooler
temperatures and windy conditions on the backside. These cooler
temperatures will introduce frost/freeze concerns Monday through
Wednesday mornings. Wednesday morning in particular looks to be
the coldest as the core of surface high pressure passes through
the FA. The probabilities Wednesday morning for temperatures of
32 degrees or colder is 70% area wide.
...Weekend Thunderstorms and Rainfall...
A strong low level jet of 50+ knots and associated warm air
advection will bring increasing potential for thunderstorms starting
Friday night. The first area of thunderstorm development looks to be
along the International Border on the nose of the WWA/LLJ Friday
night. While small hail and lightning are possible, severe weather
is not anticipated. Attention then shifts to Saturday afternoon and
evening. The advancing cold front from the west will provide
sufficient forcing for thunderstorms to develop. Instability of up
to 2000 J/kg, along with more then adequate 0-6 Km shear of 40+
knots will set the stage for thunderstorm development. The
window of time for storms to become severe seems to be limited
to a few hours in the late afternoon/early evening. Therefore,
the SPC has placed much of the forecast area under a level 1 of
5 marginal risk. The highest shear and instability seem to co-
locate themselves in northwestern MN, where a locally bit higher
risk of severe weather appears to exist.
A large shield of rain will develop on the cold side of the low,
driven by strong synoptic forcing. This deformation band will slowly
push northeastward, waning Sunday afternoon. Recent model guidance
has trended stronger and further west with the track of the surface
low, resulting in a swath of heavy rainfall on the order of 1 to 2
inches across the Devils Lake Basin into the far northern Red River
Valley. Rainfall totals taper off to the south and east.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
High confidence in VFR throughout the TAF period at all sites
except for KBJI where fog may develop.
Between 10Z-14Z, there is a low (20%) chance in fog developing
within Minnesota around the KBJI area. Should fog develop, it
could bring temporary intervals of visibility reductions as low
as 1/2SM or even briefly 1/4SM, and will be shallow and patchy
in depth and coverage. Confidence is low on this potential, and
may not be added into the TAF until very near the time of
impact, if occurring at all.
Winds become calm and variable tonight through sunrise, before
increasing out of the south up to 12kt starting around 18Z.
Gusts to 25kt are forecast at KGFK and KFAR between 21Z-00Z
tomorrow afternoon.
Good signal in guidance for wind shear already showing up after
00Z tomorrow evening. While this is outside of the current TAF
period, there is enough confidence in this hazard to start
messaging now.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...CJ

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion