Holtson Crossroads, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

334
FXUS62 KCAE 110044
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
844 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the
next seven days with dry conditions and near to above normal
daytime temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):
- None.
Surface high pressure in place over much of the the eastern
CONUS. Deep layer dry air continues to move in from the west with
a moisture gradient in place. Satellite derived PWAT estimates
of a half inch in the western portion of the forecast area to
around an inch in the east. Some low clouds continue just to the
east of the forecast area and will likely build in overnight.
Cooler temperatures in the west as a result in the mid to upper
50s to low to mid 60s in the eastern area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Surface ridging and calm weather expected through the end of
  the week.
Weak positively titled upper troughing continues to shift
offshore, as a very strong surface high slides across eastern
Canada. As a result, surface ridging will remain in place as
northeasterly low level continues down lee of the Appalachians;
northeasterly winds will weaken somewhat on Thursday before
strengthening again Friday. While some airmass moderation will
start to bump dew points and PWAT`s up, precip chances remain
near zero through Friday but temps will rise to near average (in
the mid- upper 80`s).
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Warm and dry conditions expected into next week.
The overall synoptic pattern really will not change much over
the next, at least in regards to its sensible weather impacts as
a long wave quasi-omega block remains over the northern tier of
the US. Surface ridging will continue to extend down lee of the
Appalachians as the Canadian high sags southeastward over the
weekend. With a relative lack of advection as the entire airmass
in the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast steadily moderates and
heights rise, temps will climb back above average over the
weekend despite northeasterly flow. Moisture however will be
limited in its return and precip chance remain near zero through
the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ceiling restrictions possible at OGB and CAE/CUB early Thursday.
Deeper moisture remains along the coast with drier air to the
west. Another round of stratus is expected to develop along the
coast tonight and advance inland similar to the previous night.
As the stratus deck moves into the Midlands we expect MVFR or
IFR restrictions for at least a hew hours at OGB occurring
between 10Z and 15Z. It`s less certain that the cloud deck will
make it to the Columbia sites but given the model guidance for
tonight and MVFR restrictions that occurred for about an hour
the previous night we decided to introduce a brief period of
MVFR restrictions. VFR conditions are expected to return around
15Z Thursday with continued NE flow around 5 to 10 kts through
the afternoon. The air mass remains too dry for any showers.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...With limited moisture over the
region through the weekend, rainfall chances and the chance for
widespread restrictions are low. Brief, early morning
visibility restrictions at the fog prone sites are possible
Friday morning and over the weekend.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion