Honey Creek, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

886
FXUS63 KOAX 101705
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1205 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Highs will mostly be in the 80s into next week, though a few
  spots are expected to see lower to possibly mid 90s Friday
  and Saturday.
- Mostly dry conditions expected through Saturday. Shower and
  storm chances return Saturday night into next week, with the
  highest chances Saturday night and Sunday evening (30-50%).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Early morning analysis showed upper level ridging pushing into
the area with some shortwave energy sliding through the ridge
and leading to some showers and storms in southwest NE into
western KS. Debris clouds/the anvil of these storms continue to
edge into southeast NE, while some lower clouds had developed in
the vicinity of a surface boundary across east-central NE into
southwest IA. This increased cloud cover combined with a little
wind aloft will likely limit our fog potential into this
morning. That said there are currently enough breaks in the
clouds that we`re seeing some patchy development, mainly in
portions of northeast NE and expect this to continue this
morning. Otherwise today should be pretty quiet with highs once
again in the lower to mid 80s.
The aforementioned surface boundary will edge southward through
the day with questions remaining on just how far south it gets.
A few showers and isolated storms could develop along the
boundary late tonight into early Thursday, especially as
moisture transport ramps up and points toward it. However,
latest short term guidance keeps most of this activity to our
south, so only have a 15% chance clipping Saline, Jefferson, and
Gage counties.
Upper level ridging will continue to amplify over the central
CONUS Thursday into Friday with continued southeasterly to
southerly flow ushering in warm, moist air. As a result, we
should mostly mid 80s on Thursday followed by upper 80s to lower
90s on Friday and Saturday. There are signs that we could even
be a few degrees warmer with NAEFS/EPS mean 850 mb temperatures
in the lower to mid 20s, good for the at least the 97.5th
percentile of climatology. And while the GFS is almost
certainly over-mixed with way-too-high max temperatures, even
the typically under-mixed NAM suggests highs could reach the mid
90s in some locations. That said, some shortwave energy will be
riding along the periphery of the ridge just west of the
forecast area, so there could be some clouds to contend with.
Either way, it`s looking quite warm Friday and Saturday, though
the good news is the dewpoints will "only" be in the 60s.
By Saturday night, a large scale upper level trough over the
western CONUS will have edged quite a bit closer to the forecast
area with its axis generally over the Rockies. Some shortwave
energy will round the base of the trough and push into central
and eastern NE Saturday night while an area of surface low
pressure over SD drags a cold front toward the area. As a
result, we`ll increased shower and storm chances (30-50%,
mainly in eastern NE) into early Sunday. An additional
potentially stronger shortwave looks like it could push through
Sunday night into Monday while the cold front advances farther
east. This would bring 30-50% chances to the entire area. A few
of the machine learning severe weather algorithms even hint at a
5% chance for severe storms, though latest guidance suggests
we`ll probably have pretty limited instability due to morning
showers/storms/clouds. Something to watch as we get closer.
Once that system departs, we should remain under southwesterly
to zonal flow aloft with a continued train of various bits of
shortwave energy sliding through and bringing continued shower
and storm chances. Currently have spotty 20-30% chances each day
into next week, but confidence in exact timing and strength of
these systems is quite low. Otherwise, we will cool back down a
bit following the 90s on Saturday, though highs look to remain
in the 80s into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
A sparse, shallow field of low-to-mid clouds at FL025 is
beginning to develop across northeast Nebraska and Iowa early
this afternoon, with additional clouds to make their way to all
terminals as southeasterly winds continue at close to 10 kts.
VFR conditions are expected through the period, with fog chances
looking unlikely at this point. Winds should stay largely
unidirectional and begin increasing in speed late tomorrow
morning with gusts of 20-25 kts starting between 14 and 17z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Petersen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion