Horizon City, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

301
FXUS64 KEPZ 121132
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
532 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 416 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
- Friday thunderstorms start out west, but expand east across the
   Borderland Friday evening, overnight, and through the day
   Saturday.
- A mostly dry day Sunday as a trough sweeps out moisture to our
   east.
- Moderate moisture returns for isolated showers and storms
   Monday and Tuesday, and possibly further into the week ahead.
- Above normal temperatures Friday, trending back to normal and
   slightly below Saturday and into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1005 PM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
As expected, the upper high centered over TX, did shove moisture
west today, with showers and storms focused over E AZ and over our
Continental Divide area and west. The rest of our region was too
dry for any convective activity resulting in precipitation. The
moisture was focused in a channel between a western U.S. trough,
and the TX high. Tomorrow, the trough to our west begins to
slowly work it`s way east, toward the Rockies. As it advances
toward our area, the plume of deeper moisture will shift east with
it. For the earlier part of the day we will see generally clear
skies, with early afternoon convective development over our
western zones. Mid afternoon and beyond we expect shower and storm
development to begin to develop over the South Central NM
Lowlands, and then later to shift to the Rio Grande Valley and
eastward through the evening, and even overnight. With a trough
moving in overhead, we will see some increasing dynamics aloft, in
the form of cooler air aloft, increasing instability with steeper
lapse rates, as well as some shear, with winds turning from S to
SW with height, and increasing from 10-15kts to 45-55kts aloft.
Thus we should see good SW to NE storm motion at a fair clip, that
will moderate the potential for flooding, although there is some
minor potential for it. There will be some potential for strong to
severe storms, with the possibility for strong outflow winds and
moderate hail.
This event looks to persist through the night and well into
Saturday, as we see the upper trough slowly move east across the
Rockies, with the deeper moisture plume swinging through with it.
Thus, for Saturday, we continue with fairly good chances for storms,
with a continue risk for some of those storms to become severe,
again, with damaging winds and moderate to large hail.
With the trough in the vicinity, and increased moisture, clouds, and
storm activity, temperatures will be on a downward trend; still
above normal for tomorrow, but down to near normal for the weekend,
and through much of next week.
Sunday still looks like a "betweener" day, as the moisture gets
temporarily flushed out to our east, on moderate west flow aloft, as
the main trough feature passes across the Rockies, and moves out
into the Plains. Both the GFS and the ECMWF models indicate a deep
sweep out of moisture, and a dry day.
Last night the models were in disagreement on Monday. This evening,
the latest model runs are much more cohesive on a solution. The
GFS continues with a reintroduction of moisture from the south,
but is not as bullish, and the ECMWF has now bought in on bringing
back moisture too. So now we can include POPs for both Monday and
Tuesday with better confidence.
Beyond Tuesday, the pattern is kind of a mess, with a pair of upper
lows to our north, and a ridge over our region. It appears we trend
drier through mid week and beyond, with the ECMWF drying us out, and
the GFS keeping just enough moisture that isolated afternoon storms
can`t entirely be ruled out.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 416 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
VFR conditions through the period with skies generally SKC to FEW
through the morning, winds light and VRB through 15-16Z.
Prevailing winds through the period will be generally S/SE at 7-12
knots with gusts to 15-20 knots.
After 18Z, CU development will occur over area mountains, 19-20Z
across the desert lowlands with FEW to SCT at 10-12kft. Expect
skies to go SCT/BKN to BKN/OVC through the afternoon and evening
from west to east. SCT to NUMEROUS showers and storms will be
possible for areas west of the Rio Grande Valley during the
afternoon and evening, ISO to SCT for areas east of the RGV after
21Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 416 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Fire weather concerns are low with low fire danger. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms today for areas west of the Rio Grande
Valley during the afternoon and evening. Activity will gradually
push east through the late afternoon and evening. Lightning,
moderate to heavy rain, and gusty winds will be the primary
hazards. Min RH values this afternoon will be above 25 percent
areawide with temperatures at or slightly above the seasonal
average. Outside of thunderstorm outflows, winds will be 10-15 mph
out of the south or southeast.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected on Saturday, focusing
areas along and east of the RGV. Drier conditions expected on
Sunday before moisture returns early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  94  72  89  69 /  10  50  60  50
Sierra Blanca            89  64  84  61 /  10  20  70  60
Las Cruces               90  64  84  61 /  20  70  70  30
Alamogordo               91  64  84  61 /  10  50  80  40
Cloudcroft               69  47  62  45 /  10  50  90  50
Truth or Consequences    87  63  81  59 /  40  80  70  20
Silver City              81  57  76  54 /  80  80  80  10
Deming                   91  64  85  61 /  50  70  70  20
Lordsburg                87  63  81  61 /  80  70  70  10
West El Paso Metro       92  70  86  69 /  10  50  60  50
Dell City                91  67  86  64 /   0  20  70  50
Fort Hancock             94  70  90  68 /  10  20  70  60
Loma Linda               85  64  81  61 /  10  40  70  50
Fabens                   93  70  89  67 /  10  40  60  50
Santa Teresa             91  67  85  65 /  20  50  60  40
White Sands HQ           91  67  85  65 /  20  60  70  50
Jornada Range            90  64  82  61 /  20  70  80  40
Hatch                    92  64  85  61 /  40  80  80  20
Columbus                 92  66  85  64 /  40  60  60  20
Orogrande                89  64  84  61 /  10  50  70  50
Mayhill                  79  54  74  51 /  10  40  90  50
Mescalero                80  52  73  49 /  10  50  90  50
Timberon                 76  51  71  48 /  10  40  90  50
Winston                  79  52  76  47 /  60  80  70  10
Hillsboro                88  59  82  56 /  60  80  70  20
Spaceport                89  62  81  58 /  40  80  80  30
Lake Roberts             82  53  77  48 /  80  80  80  10
Hurley                   83  59  79  56 /  70  80  70  10
Cliff                    88  60  82  57 /  80  70  60   0
Mule Creek               83  57  79  54 /  70  70  50   0
Faywood                  84  60  78  56 /  60  80  70  10
Animas                   88  64  82  61 /  80  70  70  10
Hachita                  87  62  81  60 /  70  70  70  20
Antelope Wells           87  62  82  60 /  70  60  60  20
Cloverdale               83  60  77  59 /  70  60  70  20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...38-Rogers

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion