793 FXUS63 KGID 081737 AFDGIDArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1237 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periodic, mainly small, chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through the period. A few strong thunderstorms will be possible east of Highway 281 this morning, with widespread or severe thunderstorms appearing unlikely over the remainder of the period.
- A gradual rise in temperatures is anticipated across the area each day, with high temperatures forecast to peak in the upper 80s to near 90 by Friday.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Showers and thunderstorms developed along the edge of the low level jet early this morning and are continuing to increase in coverage. While severe weather is unlikely with this activity given the weak shear, ample instability could result in a few small hail cores or gusty winds promoting a strong storm or two. Models have been anticipating this development the past few hours...and track it east of the local area by around daybreak. At the same time, decaying convection approaching the area from the high plains may help initiate another round of showers and thunderstorms in the wake of the current convection during the morning hours, with isolated shower or thunderstorm activity also possible this afternoon and evening with an approaching upper level disturbance.
As high pressure then begins to move across the area from the west on Tuesday, temperatures will continue their gradual upward trend each afternoon, eventually peaking around Friday as the upper level ridge gets squeezed across the plains in response to a deep west coast trough. At the same time, multiple weak disturbances emerging out of the southwesterly flow aloft will periodically impact the local area, with near daily chances for at least spotty showers and thunderstorms. This does not look like an overly wet period, but some showers or thunderstorms could impact at least parts of the local area each day.
Overall, just a messy looking upper level pattern with occasionally small chances for showers and thunderstorms across the local area, with no obvious signs of widespread of severe weather through at least the end of the work week.
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
A few sneaky low-level clouds creeping up from the south may temporarily bring MVFR ceilings through 21-22z today. Some low clouds may linger thereafter, though the overall coverage should be clear enough to break up MVFR ceilings. VFR conditions should hold out this evening and night until 8-12z when a few lower clouds again may challenge MVFR conditions.
Besides ceilings, winds will be fairly gutsy (up to 30-35 MPH) this afternoon out of the south and weakening overnight. LLWS is possible, though too marginal to confidently include in the TAF period. Though the chance of precipitation can also not be 100% ruled out, waning probability does not give us enough confidence to include in the TAF.
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.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None.
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DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Stump
NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion