106 FXUS63 KDDC 222311 AFDDDCArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 611 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A slight risk for severe thunderstorms will be possible late today and tonight. The main hazard from the strongest storms will be 2 inch hail, wind gust of 60 mph and locally heavy rainfall.
- Heavy rainfall will be possible tonight with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts will be possible north and east of the Dodge City area. A flood watch is in effect for this area tonight and early Tuesday.
- The risk of severe weather will decrease Tuesday but the rain will continue. This additional rainfall may result in ongoing water issues in some locations, especially in low lying and poor drainage areas.
- Unseasonably cooler temperatures will accompany this rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday but a period of warmer and dry conditions can be expected the last part of the work week.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Early this Monday afternoon a surface boundary was located across northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado and a cold front moving south across Nebraska and Wyoming. An upper level trough extended from the Four Corners region into the northern Rockies. A more subtle upper level wave appeared to be located at noon across northern Colorado, ahead of this trough. Southerly winds across southwest Kansas were drawing more humid air back into the area with PWATs of greater than 1 inch was already present across portions of southwest Kansas based on the latest SPC MesoAnalysis and surface observations indicating dewpoints were already ranging from 65 to 70 degrees.
Over the next 12 to 18 hours the main focus will be centered around the more subtle upper wave over northern Colorado earlier today as it moves east into Western Kansas and encounters our surface boundary across northwest Kansas/far eastern Colorado. The upper level trough associated with a subtle wave over northern Colorado will move eastward into western Kansas over the next 12-18 hours, interacting with a surface boundary across northwest Kansas and far eastern Colorado. Short term models are in good agreement that this boundary will be the primary focus for convective initiation later this afternoon and early this evening. Afternoon heating and improving instability ahead of the approaching wave will further enhance storm development. As storms develop late today and early this evening, the environment will be favorable for hail up to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts exceeding 60 mph due to the forecast shear, mid level instability and with cooler 700mb temperatures (weaker cin). This developing line of storms is expected to move southeast overnight along a mid level 0-1km theta-e axis.
Also overnight additional severe thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of this main line after sunset due to improving warm air advection near the nose of a developing low level jet and 850-700mb moisture transport increase. These storms developing later tonight will also be capable of producing large hail and strong winds. Also overnight there will be an elevated concern for flash flooding, particularly north and east of Dodge City given the expected widespread accumulating rainfall. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches will be possible in this area overnight given the PWAT values forecast to exceed the 90th percentile. This expected rainfall amount combined with the lower flash flood guidance in this area will contribute to this heightened risk of flash flooding. As a result have also issued a Flood Watch due to flash flooding for tonight through early Tuesday.
The overnight convection will diminish from west to east Tuesday morning as a cold front exits the area. However this brief break from wet weather will be brief. Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected to spread into southwest Kansas by Tuesday evening as an upper level trough moves out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains. While cooler and more stable air behind the cold front will limit the severe weather threat, additional rainfall amounts between 0.25 and 1 inch are possible, particularly near the I-70 corridor. When combined with expected rainfall tonight, this could result in some isolated ongoing water issues. Confidence in this additional rainfall remains moderate (40-60%).
Rainfall associated with the upper level trough will exit southwest Kansas by Wednesday evening as this system moves into the Mississippi Valley. Until then unseasonably cool temperatures are anticipated across western Kansas. This is primarily due to the persistent cooler air mass combined with expected cloud cover and precipitation chances, which will limit diurnal warming. High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s but for some locations north and east of Dodge City, particularly on Tuesday, may struggle to reach beyond the upper 60s, contributing to a notable departure from seasonal norms.
The period of cooler temperatures mid week will give way to a warming trend late in the week as an upper level ridge builds across the Plains and an upper level trough deepens over the southeastern United States. Confidence in this temperature increase is high (+70%) due to consistent model agreement on the large scale pattern evolution.
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.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread overnight along and ahead of a cold front that will move across southwest Kansas between 06z and 12z Tuesday. As the front passes, winds will shift from south to north and increase to 15 to 25 mph with stronger gusts. Cloud bases will drop below 1000 feet AGL, and areas of fog with visibility reduced to 2 to 4 miles are also anticipated. These conditions are likely to persist until at least 15z Tuesday, improving as scattered thunderstorms in southwest Kansas clear. After 18z, visibility is expected to improve to more than 6 miles, with VFR ceilings between 3000 and 6000 feet AGL.
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.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday afternoon for KSZ030-031-044>046-064>066-078>081.
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DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert
NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion