Hugoton, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

106
FXUS63 KDDC 222311
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
611 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A slight risk for severe thunderstorms will be possible late
  today and tonight. The main hazard from the strongest storms
  will be 2 inch hail, wind gust of 60 mph and locally heavy
  rainfall.
- Heavy rainfall will be possible tonight with rainfall totals
  of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts will be possible
  north and east of the Dodge City area. A flood watch is in
  effect for this area tonight and early Tuesday.
- The risk of severe weather will decrease Tuesday but the rain
  will continue. This additional rainfall may result in ongoing
  water issues in some locations, especially in low lying and
  poor drainage areas.
- Unseasonably cooler temperatures will accompany this rainfall
  Tuesday and Wednesday but a period of warmer and dry
  conditions can be expected the last part of the work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Early this Monday afternoon a surface boundary was located
across northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado and a cold front
moving south across Nebraska and Wyoming. An upper level trough
extended from the Four Corners region into the northern Rockies.
A more subtle upper level wave appeared to be located at noon
across northern Colorado, ahead of this trough. Southerly winds
across southwest Kansas were drawing more humid air back into
the area with PWATs of greater than 1 inch was already present
across portions of southwest Kansas based on the latest SPC
MesoAnalysis and surface observations indicating dewpoints were
already ranging from 65 to 70 degrees.
Over the next 12 to 18 hours the main focus will be centered
around the more subtle upper wave over northern Colorado earlier
today as it moves east into Western Kansas and encounters our
surface boundary across northwest Kansas/far eastern Colorado.
The upper level trough associated with a subtle wave over
northern Colorado will move eastward into western Kansas over
the next 12-18 hours, interacting with a surface boundary
across northwest Kansas and far eastern Colorado. Short term
models are in good agreement that this boundary will be the
primary focus for convective initiation later this afternoon and
early this evening. Afternoon heating and improving instability
ahead of the approaching wave will further enhance storm
development. As storms develop late today and early this
evening, the environment will be favorable for hail up to 2
inches in diameter and wind gusts exceeding 60 mph due to the
forecast shear, mid level instability and with cooler 700mb
temperatures (weaker cin). This developing line of storms is
expected to move southeast overnight along a mid level 0-1km
theta-e axis.
Also overnight additional severe thunderstorm development will
be possible ahead of this main line after sunset due to
improving warm air advection near the nose of a developing low
level jet and 850-700mb moisture transport increase. These
storms developing later tonight will also be capable of
producing large hail and strong winds. Also overnight there will
be an elevated concern for flash flooding, particularly north
and east of Dodge City given the expected widespread
accumulating rainfall. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches will be
possible in this area overnight given the PWAT values forecast
to exceed the 90th percentile. This expected rainfall amount
combined with the lower flash flood guidance in this area will
contribute to this heightened risk of flash flooding. As a
result have also issued a Flood Watch due to flash flooding for
tonight through early Tuesday.
The overnight convection will diminish from west to east
Tuesday morning as a cold front exits the area. However this
brief break from wet weather will be brief. Another round of
widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected to spread into
southwest Kansas by Tuesday evening as an upper level trough
moves out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains.  While
cooler and more stable air behind the cold front will limit the
severe weather threat, additional rainfall amounts between 0.25
and 1 inch are possible, particularly near the I-70 corridor.
When combined with expected rainfall tonight, this could result
in some isolated ongoing water issues. Confidence in this
additional rainfall remains moderate (40-60%).
Rainfall associated with the upper level trough will exit
southwest Kansas by Wednesday evening as this system moves into
the Mississippi Valley. Until then unseasonably cool
temperatures are anticipated across western Kansas. This is
primarily due to the persistent cooler air mass combined with
expected cloud cover and precipitation chances, which will limit
diurnal warming. High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s
but for some locations north and east of Dodge City,
particularly on Tuesday, may struggle to reach beyond the upper
60s, contributing to a notable departure from seasonal norms.
The period of cooler temperatures mid week will give way to a
warming trend late in the week as an upper level ridge builds
across the Plains and an upper level trough deepens over the
southeastern United States. Confidence in this temperature
increase is high (+70%) due to consistent model agreement on
the large scale pattern evolution.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread
overnight along and ahead of a cold front that will move across
southwest Kansas between 06z and 12z Tuesday. As the front
passes, winds will shift from south to north and increase to 15
to 25 mph with stronger gusts. Cloud bases will drop below 1000
feet AGL, and areas of fog with visibility reduced to 2 to 4
miles are also anticipated. These conditions are likely to
persist until at least 15z Tuesday, improving as scattered
thunderstorms in southwest Kansas clear. After 18z, visibility
is expected to improve to more than 6 miles, with VFR ceilings
between 3000 and 6000 feet AGL.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
afternoon for KSZ030-031-044>046-064>066-078>081.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion