781 FXUS63 KDDC 231703 AFDDDCArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1203 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A flood warning is in effect in the northwest counties until 10 AM CDT.
- The risk of severe weather is minimal Tuesday but the rain will continue. This additional rainfall may result in ongoing water issues in some locations, especially in low lying and poor drainage areas.
- Unseasonably cooler temperatures will accompany this rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday but a period of warmer and very dry conditions can be expected for the next 7-10 days.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Thunderstorms continue to blanket the northern and eastern zones of the forecast area early this morning. A flood warning is in effect for portions of Scott, Lane, and Ness counties until 10 AM CDT. Rain in that area may continue well into the morning intensifying flood conditions. The severe weather threat for SW Kansas has passed and only the flooding concerns remain. A low-level shortwave trough currently sits over Nebraska as its` cold front sweeps across the CWA. This will drop forecasted highs from the mid-80s on Monday to the mid-70s on Tuesday. The extensive cloud cover will also help to keep temperatures cool the next couple days. As the trough ejects, more convection is expected Tuesday well into the night. Unlike the past couple days, the severe weather threat on Tuesday is minimal. The heaviest rain is expected in the northern zones, but may reach the entire CWA late into Wednesday morning. Ensemble means for the who system has the heaviest rain totals in the north/northeast approaching two inches.
After this system, the overall pattern becomes significantly more benign and SW Kansas is expected to enter a dry stretch. The LREF ensemble depicts a closed low developing near the end of the week with ridging to the north. If this holds, a Rex Block could and prolong the dry and stagnant period for the foreseeable future. The GFS has the low further east and a more Omega Block pattern developing. Regardless of the blocking type, the dry stretch may last well beyond the forecast period. Ensembles keep precipitation chances below 10% until late next week. Even then chances stay below 25% so it is more than possible that SW Kansas does not see precipitation for a week after this last system moves and its` influence exists. After Tuesday, highs are forecast to be in the upper 70s-lower 80s. Winds are forecast to be lighter (046-064>066-078>081.
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DISCUSSION...KBJ AVIATION...Hovorka_42
NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion