Hugoton, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

781
FXUS63 KDDC 231703
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1203 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A flood warning is in effect in the northwest counties until 10 AM
  CDT.
- The risk of severe weather is minimal Tuesday but the rain
  will continue. This additional rainfall may result in ongoing
  water issues in some locations, especially in low lying and
  poor drainage areas.
- Unseasonably cooler temperatures will accompany this rainfall
  Tuesday and Wednesday but a period of warmer and very dry
  conditions can be expected for the next 7-10 days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Thunderstorms continue to blanket the northern and eastern zones of
the forecast area early this morning. A flood warning is in effect
for portions of Scott, Lane, and Ness counties until 10 AM CDT. Rain
in that area may continue well into the morning intensifying flood
conditions. The severe weather threat for SW Kansas has passed and
only the flooding concerns remain. A low-level shortwave trough
currently sits over Nebraska as its` cold front sweeps across the
CWA. This will drop forecasted highs from the mid-80s on Monday to
the mid-70s on Tuesday. The extensive cloud cover will also help to
keep temperatures cool the next couple days. As the trough ejects,
more convection is expected Tuesday well into the night. Unlike the
past couple days, the severe weather threat on Tuesday is minimal.
The heaviest rain is expected in the northern zones, but may reach
the entire CWA late into Wednesday morning. Ensemble means for the
who system has the heaviest rain totals in the north/northeast
approaching two inches.
After this system, the overall pattern becomes significantly more
benign and SW Kansas is expected to enter a dry stretch. The LREF
ensemble depicts a closed low developing near the end of the week
with ridging to the north. If this holds, a Rex Block could and
prolong the dry and stagnant period for the foreseeable future. The
GFS has the low further east and a more Omega Block pattern
developing. Regardless of the blocking type, the dry stretch may
last well beyond the forecast period. Ensembles keep precipitation
chances below 10% until late next week. Even then chances stay below
25% so it is more than possible that SW Kansas does not see
precipitation for a week after this last system moves and its`
influence exists. After Tuesday, highs are forecast to be in the
upper 70s-lower 80s. Winds are forecast to be lighter (046-064>066-078>081.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion