Hulberton, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

438
FXUS61 KBUF 191027
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
627 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Early morning clouds and possibly a few spotty sprinkles will give
way to clearing skies and cooler temperatures today...as strong
Canadian high pressure over Ontario Province builds southeastward
across the Great Lakes. The high will then provide our region with
continued dry and cooler weather through Saturday night as it
settles across New England. As we push through Sunday and early next
week...the high will drift off the east coast while broad troughing
develops across the Upper Great Lakes. The warmer southerly flow in
between these two systems will help to push our temperatures back
above normal...while also bringing enough moisture into our region
to support a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As we push through today...strong Canadian high pressure and
drier/cooler air over Ontario Province will build southeastward
across the Great Lakes. Upslope-driven low clouds will hang on
across areas south of Lake Ontario through mid to late morning...
before giving way to increasing amounts of sunshine with
increasing low-level dry air advection and diurnal mixing. The
incoming cooler airmass will result in 850 mb temps falling to
+6/+8C east of Lake Ontario and to +8C to +12C elsewhere...and
this coupled with the morning cloud cover will result in a
notably cooler day with highs mostly in the mid 60s to lower
70s.
Tonight the core of the surface high will settle into southwestern
Quebec...while providing our region with fair dry weather and mainly
clear skies. The cool/dry airmass and light east to northeasterly
winds will allow for good radiational cooling...particularly east of
Lake Ontario where the airmass will be coolest overall. Expect lows
to range from the lower to mid 40s across western New York (where
somewhat more of a light easterly flow will be in place) to the
lower to mid 30s across the North Country...where some areas of
frost are likely and a Frost Advisory has consequently been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over eastern Canada and an upper level
ridge will maintain dry weather across western and north central
NY this weekend. Temperatures will range from the mid to upper
60s across north-central NY to the mid to upper 70s across the
western Southern Tier. The high over Quebec Saturday will drift
southeast over the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England
Saturday night. A return flow will set-up across most of the
forecast area, however the North Country has the potential to
decouple overnight. Lows may drop to the 30s across portions of
Jefferson and Lewis counties and patchy frost can`t be ruled
out, however confidence is low.
Much warmer Sunday as a warm front moves into western NY. A broad
southerly, downslope flow will also aide in warmer air especially
across the Niagara Frontier and Genesee Valley. Highs will range
from the mid to upper 70s to the low 80s across the Niagara Frontier
and Genesee Valley. Increasing moisture may result in widely
scattered showers across far western NY late Sunday.
The upper level ridge breaks down and shifts east late Sunday into
Sunday night. A shortwave trough over the Central Great Lakes will
move across the forecast area Sunday night. Moisture and lift will
increase ahead of it and low chances for showers will spread across
western NY. By late Sunday night, probability for showers will
increase to 50 across far western NY. Light rainfall amounts
expected overnight. Mild with lows in the 50s, low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A low amplitude upper level trough will move into the Northeast
early next work week. A broad southwesterly flow will maintain a
feed of moisture across the forecast area. A few disturbances within
a westerly flow will support the chance for much needed rain Monday
through Tuesday. LREF ensemble mean 500mb heights show an upper
level ridge moving back into the region mid-late next work week,
promoting mostly dry weather Wednesday-Friday.
Overall, temperatures will be above normal, with the warmest period
on the front end of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As we push through today...strong Canadian high pressure and
drier/cooler air over Ontario Province will build southeastward
across the Great Lakes. Upslope-driven low (LIFR to MVFR) clouds
(and patchy fog where these intersect the higher terrain) will
hang on across areas south of Lake Ontario through mid to late
morning...before improving back to VFR with increasing low-level
dry air advection and diurnal mixing.
Tonight the core of the surface high will settle across southwestern
Quebec...with VFR conditions predominating for all save the Southern
Tier river valleys...where some patchy valley fog may develop later
on in the night.
Outlook...
Saturday through Sunday...Mainly VFR, with southern Tier valley fog
possible each overnight/early morning.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Increasing northerly flow will bring rather choppy conditions to
eastern portions of Lake Ontario through early this morning...though
conditions are expected to remain below advisory criteria. After
some temporary weakening of the flow during the day today...winds
will then freshen again out of the east-northeast tonight and
Saturday as the pressure gradient across the Lower Lakes tightens in
response to high pressure settling into southwestern Quebec. This
will likely bring a period of advisory-worthy conditions to
southwestern portions of Lake Ontario tonight through Saturday...
before winds weaken and veer more southeasterly Saturday night.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Saturday for
         LOZ043.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion