Independence, California Weather Forecast Discussion

936
FXUS65 KVEF 192336
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
436 PM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Tropical moisture will fuel chances for more showers and
  thunderstorms through this evening.
* Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms will linger through
  the weekend, with more uncertainty next week as additional
  tropical moisture could get pulled northward.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through Thursday.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed through the
morning and early afternoon in response to a moist and weakly
unstable environment. Compared to yesterday, moisture has decreased
from very high levels, but widespread PWATs of 1-1.5 inches were
still in place over the region. The main area of low pressure and
forcing has shifted north of the area thus forcing has decreased and
so  far activity has been more isolated than yesterday. Skies have
become partly to mostly sunny over portions of southern Nevada and
northwest Arizona, which has allowed for some destabilization to
occur. This set up will be in place through the afternoon, which
should lead to scattered thunderstorms to develop as CAPE increases
to around 1000 J/Kg. Without a significant forcing mechanism though,
thunderstorms will mainly favor the terrain then potentially blowing
off into valley area late this afternoon. Additionally, the only
area where decent forcing should be available this afternoon will be
in northern Inyo County which is closest to the center of the upper
level low. This will also result showers and thunderstorms for
northern Inyo into Esmeralda and central Nye counties. With ample
moisture, any storms could produce heavy rain with isolated flash
flooding possible. As a but more dry air has moved into the region
compared to yesterday, there is also a low risk for sudden gusty
outflow winds with thunderstorms. As the sun sets and we lose the
daytime heating, instability will wane and thunderstorms activity
will diminish.
As moisture and upper-level support continue to decrease over the
weekend, convection is forecast to become even more isolated and
diurnally-driven. Friday night through the weekend should be more of
a low-grade monsoon pattern, with storms developing over the
mountains in the afternoons and dissipating after sunset. A new
cutoff low developing off the central California coast will be the
wild card for the upcoming week. If and when this low moves east, it
will tap into moisture still lingering in our area and/or pull up
more moisture from the tropics, setting off another round of showers
and storms. There is a lot of model disagreement on whether and when
this happens, as well as how far north or south the low might be if
and when it occurs, so confidence in next week`s forecast is
extremely low. The main message is that thunderstorm season isn`t
quite done yet.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible in and
around the valley through the early evening, with the best chances
through 01Z. Storms today could produce sudden gusty winds, heavy
rain, and CIGs to 7000ft. Convection will wane after sunset, and
are not expected to redevelop on Saturday. Outside of thunderstorm
influence, southeast winds around 8-10KT with a few gusts over
15KT are expected for a few more hours before southwest winds at
8KT or less return after sunset. Light and variable winds will set
up overnight and continue through Saturday morning, then light
east to southeast winds under 8KT are expected Saturday
afternoon.VFR conditions will persist as SCT-BKN clouds around
10kft before clouds scatter out tonight.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will continue across southern Nevada
into western Arizona as well as in northern Inyo through the
evening. CIGs to 5000ft, heavy rain, sudden gusty winds, and
lightning possible with any storms. Convection will quickly
diminish after sunset, and only Lincoln County could see isolated
showers or thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Typical diurnal winds
trends are expected through the period, outside of thunderstorm
influence. VFR conditions will persist as SCT-BKN clouds around
10kft before clouds clear tonight.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Nickerson
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion