Independence, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

109
FXUS63 KMPX 292258
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
558 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Summer-like weather continues into the beginning of October.
- Low chance for some scattered sprinkles tomorrow, better
  chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms arrives this
  weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
In a nice change of scenery, satellite imagery shows some clouds
across the region this afternoon. This hasn`t been enough to
keep the summer-like temperatures at bay though, with a handful
of sites in western Minnesota breaking the 90 degree mark.
Further east, temperatures are in the low to mid 80s. Another
change from the past few days is that Tds have climbed into the
low 60s thanks to the return of southerly flow. This increase in
moisture coupled with a weak wave embedded in the ridge could
lead to a few sprinkles early tomorrow morning. Forecast
soundings are still fairly dry in the low levels, so anything
that does fall will be very light. During the afternoon, daytime
heating may spark another round of sprinkles and/or an isolated
rumble of thunder, particularly across central and northern
Minnesota.
If you`re still not quite ready to let go of the warm and sunny
weather, the rest of the work week has you covered. Highs
gradually warm through the second half of the week with
widespread 90s looking increasingly likely Friday. While record
daily highs may be just out of reach, some record warm lows may
be in jeopardy. The ridge begins to break down as we head into
the weekend, but models are split on what happens after this
occurs. The spread on timing, placement, and strength of a
developing surface low over the weekend is quite high, as
expected at this time range. It is worth noting that both
EPS/GEFS ensemble members seem to have backed off QPF amounts
and the NBM has tamped down PoPs a bit. So, the widespread
smattering of 30-50 NBM PoPs through next Monday seems
reasonable. There is stronger agreement on our temperatures
slowly coming down as we get into the first full week of
October, but in general, we look to still be running some 10+
degrees above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions expected for all sites throughout this duration.
Only possibility otherwise is potentially some pre-dawn fog at
EAU. Otherwise, a mixture of SCT-BKN high clouds with slowly
lowering ceilings during the TAF period. Small chance of some
intermittent sprinkles during the day Tuesday but chances too
low to mention in the TAF at this time. Winds to remain out of
the SE in the 5-10kt range.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind SSE 10G20 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind S 10G20 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chance PM -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind S 10G20 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...JPC

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion