Independence, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

754
FXUS63 KARX 260959
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
500 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-  Unseasonably mild conditions through the middle part of next
   week (approx 10 degrees above the late Sep normals). Some
   locations likely to push north of 80 degrees starting today,
   especially along/south of I-90 and in the Mississippi River
   Valley.
- Staying dry into midweek, with some low rain chances later
  next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Dry and Mild Weather Through Midweek:
The trough that has been centered over the Great Lakes the last few
days will shift off to the east. In its wake, shortwave ridging
enters the region for Friday. A shortwave trough makes its way
across southern Canada and the far northern portions of the Upper
Midwest Friday night into Saturday. Any rain chances with this
trough are expected to stay in far northern Minnesota into the
northern Great Lakes. After this trough moves by, ridging builds
back in and will likely stay through midweek.
Ensemble and deterministic guidance are in good agreement that a
ridge builds in this weekend and linger for a several days. The
ensemble cluster analysis has continued to show a gradual increase
in the likelihood of the ridge strengthening over the Upper Midwest
from Sunday into midweek with all 4 clusters showing the ridge
amplifying over the Upper Midwest in this timeframe. Towards the end
of next week, ensembles are showing the ridge flattening out a bit,
allowing for rain chances to return, the first of which is Thursday
when a cold front is expected to move through the area.
Temperatures over the next 7 days will be quite mild for this time
of year. With an amplifying ridge over the area, highs will be
around 10F above normal and nearing 15F above normal for Monday.
Most days will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. NBM probabilities for
greater than 80F are roughly between 20 to 50% for portions of
northeast Iowa and far southwest Wisconsin through Tuesday, with
exception of Monday, when the ridge will be the strongest over our
area. High temperatures on Monday are forecasted to be in the upper
70s to mid 80s. NBM probabilities for greater than 80F on Monday are
50 to 80% for portions of northeast Iowa, southwest Wisconsin, and
areas in the Mississippi River Valley, including La Crosse.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2025
CIGS: SKC/SCT conditions expected today and through the weekend. One
exception would be for the potential for a low stratus layer
(associated with river valley fog) to move across KLSE each morning.
Potential looks low at this time (

NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion