Ink, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

458
FXUS61 KCLE 190552
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
152 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly weakens tonight and Friday, allowing a
backdoor cold front to move southwest across the area during the day
Friday. High pressure builds back into the Northeast for Saturday. A
warm front lifts across the area Saturday night and Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The near term forecast period will remain quiet with fair
weather conditions. High pressure is over the Ohio Valley this
afternoon and bringing another nice, sunny afternoon. High
temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to upper 80s across
the area. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight, but there
could be some patchy fog again by sunrise Friday morning.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the middle 50s to around
60 degrees.
A backdoor cold front will slide southwestward across the area
on Friday. Moisture is very limited with this front. There will
be a slight increase in clouds Friday with the cold frontal
passage. High temperatures will a greater range from north to
south on Friday with middle to upper 70s closer to the
lakeshore and middle to upper 80s south of the Highway 30s
corridor. High pressure from southern Ontario will build down
over the eastern Great Lakes Friday night. Overnight low temps
will range from the upper 40s over northwest Pennsylvania,
lower to middle 50s over northeast Ohio, and middle to upper 50s
over northwest Ohio.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The weak front will stall out across northwest and central Ohio
by Saturday morning. There will be an increase in high and mid
level cloudiness on Saturday. Afternoon temperatures Saturday
will again be warm ranging from the upper 70s to upper 80s.
An upper level trough will move eastward from the northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region
Saturday and Saturday night. In response to the southerly to
southwesterly flow ahead of that upper level trough, the stalled
front will lift back northward across the area as a warm front
Saturday night. There could be a slight chance for an isolated
shower or two with the warm front.
By Sunday, the Upper Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region will be
in a broad southwesterly flow aloft and a light southerly flow
near the surface. Moisture levels will also start increase by
Sunday. POPs will increase 20 to 30 percent on Sunday for a few
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm. High
temperatures Sunday will be in the lower to middle 80s areawide
due to the light southerly flow. A weak cold front will slowly
slide southeastward into the Great Lakes region Sunday night.
Ahead of that front, our rain chances will also increase between
40 and 60 percent later Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The weather pattern is now looking a little more unsettled and
better rain chances for early and middle of next week. A weak
front will stall out somewhere over the Ohio Valley or Lower
Great Lakes region early next week. There will be several mid
level disturbances in the westerly flow that will track across
the Ohio Valley and interact with this stalled frontal boundary.
The higher POPs will be Monday and Tuesday. The forecast
confidence level is lower for the middle of next week and lesser
POPs at this time. Average QPF for early to middle of next week
ranges from 0.50"to 1.25" which has increased with the latest
forecast guidance. Temperatures for early next week will remain
above average in the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR is observed areawide, though as a cold front crosses into
the forecast area late tonight into Friday morning, there may be
scattered instances of non-VFR. MVFR and lower ceilings may
build into the northern fringes of our forecast area, notably
near KERI/KTOL. MVFR is favored at KERI with ceilings around
1-3kft expected for a few hours Friday morning, while IFR
ceilings as low as 300-500 ft may be possible for a few hours
near KTOL. Patchy fog may be possible elsewhere, especially near
KYNG. Conditions should quickly improve to VFR areawide by late
Friday morning, with VFR continuing through the rest of the TAF
period.
Light and variable winds overnight become north and northeast
6-10 knots during the day Friday. Winds become east-northeast
tonight, weakening to around 5 knots.
Outlook...Non-VFR with scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected Sunday through at least Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front crosses Lake Erie early this morning, with east-
northeast winds around 10-15 knots developing and persisting
through early Saturday night. A period of stronger wind speeds
around 15 to 25 knots is expected Saturday afternoon, for which
a brief, marginal small craft advisory and beach hazard
statement may be needed for at least a portion of Lake Erie
(especially east of the islands). Latest model guidance has
60-80% chance of >=3 ft waves from 18Z/Sat to 03/Sun, so
confidence is pretty high that we will see at least a moderate
chance of rip currents and we will be close to headlines on Lake
Erie.
A warm front lifts north across the lake Saturday night, with
winds veering to out of the south on Sunday and then out of the
southwest Sunday night through Monday night. Wind speeds will
generally be 10-15 knots, though there may be brief periods (on
the order of a few hours) Sunday and Sunday night when speeds
reach 20 knots or so. A cold front crosses by Tuesday or Tuesday
night with east-northeast flow thereafter.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Saunders

NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion