308 FXUS63 KLBF 060916 AFDLBFArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 416 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions will continue today and Sunday.
- A warming trend develops Sunday with warmer temperatures to remain the remainder of the week.
- Elevated fire weather concerns develop Monday and Tuesday west of Highway 83.
- Increasing chances for showers/thunder develop Wednesday and continue through the end of the week.
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.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Frost advisory for portions of north central and northwest Nebraska is on track early this morning. Temperature as of 2am MDT was 32 degrees at Gordon. Clear skies, light winds and dew points in the upper 20s to lower 30s, will allow temperatures to fall to between 30-35F across much of the frost advisory area through sunrise.
Surface high pressure is currently centered across northern Nebraska. The center will migrate eastward into western Iowa by this evening. Winds will remain light though tonight with some increase in high cloudiness later tonight. The Canadian airmass currently in place will modify some and not expecting any frost tonight.
As the high center shifts farther eastward Sunday, southerly low- level flow will increase. Low-level moisture will be pulled northward, with dew points rising into the mid 50s to lower 60s. This will help minimize fire weather concerns despite the warmer temperatures and moderate south winds. Fire weather concerns do increase some on Monday across portions of western Nebraska, west of Highway 83. A weak surface trough will move eastward to near Highway 83 by afternoon. West to northwest winds behind this trough will advect drier off the higher terrain into western Nebraska. Humidity values will fall to between 25-30%, as winds gust to around 20 mph, and high temperatures reach well into the 80s. More of the same Tuesday, with again some fire weather concern mainly west of Highway 83. At this time no critical conditions are expected, but elevated conditions certainly look possible for the mentioned areas both Monday and Tuesday.
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A pattern shift occurs Wednesday through the end of the week. A Long wave trough will deepen across the western CONUS. As this occurs, winds aloft will become southwesterly across our region ahead of this feature. Southerly low-level flow will also increase as leeward troughing deepens across the western high plains. A continuous stream of modified Gulf air will move northward across the area. This will limit fire weather concerns, as lowest humidity values WED-FRI should remain 40% or higher. Rain chances will begin to increase as several disturbances move northeastward across the area within the southwest flow aloft. The threat for severe weather seems low at this time as flow aloft remains fairly weak. PWATS do increase significantly however, and a localized heavy rain threat could develop as several rounds of showers and thunderstorms could occur. Otherwise temperatures look to remain warm, with highs though the period in the lower to mid 80s. Lows will be above average with the increased moisture/humidity.
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.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Clear skies and light winds will prevail through Saturday across all of western and north central Nebraska. VFR conditions will be observed for all areas.
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.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ this morning for NEZ004-005-023-024-094.
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SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Taylor
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion