Ionia, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

723
FXUS63 KGID 080923
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
423 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periodic, mainly small, chances for showers and thunderstorms
  are expected through the period. A few strong thunderstorms
  will be possible east of Highway 281 this morning, with
  widespread or severe thunderstorms appearing unlikely over the
  remainder of the period.
- A gradual rise in temperatures is anticipated across the area
  each day, with high temperatures forecast to peak in the upper
  80s to near 90 by Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Showers and thunderstorms developed along the edge of the low
level jet early this morning and are continuing to increase in
coverage. While severe weather is unlikely with this activity
given the weak shear, ample instability could result in a few
small hail cores or gusty winds promoting a strong storm or two.
Models have been anticipating this development the past few
hours...and track it east of the local area by around daybreak.
At the same time, decaying convection approaching the area from
the high plains may help initiate another round of showers and
thunderstorms in the wake of the current convection during the
morning hours, with isolated shower or thunderstorm activity
also possible this afternoon and evening with an approaching
upper level disturbance.
As high pressure then begins to move across the area from the
west on Tuesday, temperatures will continue their gradual
upward trend each afternoon, eventually peaking around Friday as
the upper level ridge gets squeezed across the plains in
response to a deep west coast trough. At the same time, multiple
weak disturbances emerging out of the southwesterly flow aloft
will periodically impact the local area, with near daily chances
for at least spotty showers and thunderstorms. This does not
look like an overly wet period, but some showers or
thunderstorms could impact at least parts of the local area each
day.
Overall, just a messy looking upper level pattern with
occasionally small chances for showers and thunderstorms across
the local area, with no obvious signs of widespread of severe
weather through at least the end of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR conditions expected through the period with the chance for
some -SHRAs/-TSRAs from around 08/09-08/13Z...although confidence
in activity and timing not the highest. Starting to see some low
level cloud develop on satellite across the area early this
morning...but so far they remain scattered with the main
convection rolling off the high plains and approaching the
terminals from the west. As the LLJ intensifies over the next few
hours...expect the development of -SHRAs/-TSRA...with models
continuing to focus the main development east of the terminals. At
the same time, the disturbance from the west will cross the
terminals...and have a prob30 during the early morning
hours...followed by a VCSH through around midday...when skies
should clear across the area. Winds overnight will remain steady
near 10 KTS out of the S...becoming gusty during the morning hours
and remaining gusty (to near 25 KTS) through the afternoon hours.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion