Ishpeming, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

012
FXUS63 KMQT 251949
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
349 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front brings isolated rain showers to the western half this
evening.
- A mostly dry and low impact weather pattern with near to above
average temperatures holds into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Visible satellite shows mostly sunny skies across Upper Michigan
this afternoon beneath transient upper level ridging as low pressure
slowly departs to the south and east. This has allowed temperatures
to climb into the 70s across much of the area with the exception of
a few 60s near Lake Superior and in the east. Looking upstream, a
cold front extends southwest into the MN Arrowhead from a deep low
over Hudson Bay, and this feature is poised to move across the Lake
Superior and the UP tonight. This will potentially bring a few rain
showers across the west later this evening, but do not expect more
than a few hundredths of precipitation in most locations given
limited moisture and instability to work with. Wind will turn
northerly and pick up a bit behind the front, with winds possibly
gusting to 20-25 mph along the Keweenaw through Friday morning.
Expect overnight lows to be a bit warmer than last night as broken
mid level cloud cover accompanies the frontal passage.
Afternoon highs will temporarily fall back closer to seasonal norms
in the 60s on Friday in the wake of the front. Overall, it should be
a pleasant fall day across the area in dry northwest flow aloft.
Another cold front will move across the area Friday night into
Saturday. Models once again struggle to produce much if any
precipitation with this feature, with another round of breezy
conditions on the Keweenaw likely to be the primary impact.
Still looking warm and dry through the rest of the period as medium
range guidance keeps high pressure locked in over the Great Lakes
from Sunday into the middle of next week. Expect plenty of sunshine
with highs in the 70s each day. Clear skies will also allow
temperatures to fall off at night, with widespread 40s and a few
spots perhaps dipping into the upper 30s this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR conditions prevail across the UP today under mostly clear skies
as weak high pressure passes overhead. Winds mainly out of the WSW
around 10 kt at the terminals ahead of an approaching cold front,
with some gusts to 20 kt expected along the Keweenaw including KCMX
this afternoon. There will be a slight chance of showers across the
west after 00z Fri as the front moves into the area, but chances
remain too low to warrant inclusion in the TAFs and flight
conditions are expected to remain VFR. Winds will veer NW and
eventually NE behind the front tonight, with upslope flow expected
to bring some low stratus and IFR cigs back to KSAW after 06z Fri,
persisting through around 15z Fri. Otherwise expect VFR through the
period as high pressure returns behind the departing front.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 349 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Available observations show SW winds around 15 kt over the western
half of the lake ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect gusts to
20-25 kt between the Keweenaw and Isle Royale through this evening,
with waves building to 2-4 ft. Winds will veer N to NE behind the
front and remain gusty into Friday morning, with waves building to 3-
5 ft across the southern half of the lake. Winds will diminish back
below 10 kt over most of the lake by Friday afternoon, with waves
subsiding back to 2 ft or less as high pressure moves back overhead.
Another front will bring another round of stronger westerly breezes
Friday night into Saturday. Winds then turn easterly and likely
remain below 20 kt as high pressure dominates from Sunday through
the middle of next week.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...CB

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion