Itaska, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

511
FXUS61 KBGM 240644
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
244 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A nearly stationary front will push back northward tonight as a
warm front bringing another round of rain. A cold frontal
boundary then sweeps through Friday with high pressure building
into the region for the weekend and into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A challenging setup this morning as we have seen rain with some
areas clearing out. Locations that clear out will have a
favorable setup for patchy dense fog this morning. A few bands
of higher clouds may slow the fog formation though. Issued a SPS
this morning to account for the fog potential, does not look
widespread enough for an advisory. Clouds and a few spotty
showers due to the stationary front should keep highs in the
70`s today.
The front will then surge northward tonight as a warm front with
enough lift and moisture to develop a fairly widespread round of
showers overnight into the morning hours Thursday. With a weak
LLJ, temperatures will not fall much tonight. Potential does
exist for some slight surface instability to advect in at some
point Thursday adding the possibility of thunder. Right now,
lapse rates look rather poor making it difficult for strong
winds to mix down to the surface. Still, an isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm is possible south and east of Binghamton
given favorable mid-level shear. Model soundings do show a
fairly decent signal for heavy downpours with PW values close to
2 inches and the potential for back building of showers and
thunderstorms. The window for this is brief Thursday afternoon
but present. Highs once again should get into the 70`s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Showers will gradually shift east of our region Thursday night
with the frontal passage. A mid-level trough and northwest flow
should keep clouds and spotty showers in place Friday as well
with only slow clearing Friday night. Cloud cover may have to
be increased for Friday given typical NW flow bias with our NBM
at some point. Temperatures still look to remain mainly in the
60`s and 70`s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The bulk of ensemble data shows high pressure building into the
region with a fairly quiet period with quite a bit of sunshine
and warm weather. However, two tropical disturbances have a high
potential of formation off the east coast by the weekend.
Uncertainity lies with how strong the mid-level heights will be
over the Great Lakes into New England and eastern Canada. Right
now, it appears the heights will be weak enough for both
potential tropical systems to stay well southeast of our
region. A few ensemble members though do bring tropical moisture
into the region at different time intervals in the long term.
Still seasonably warm with 50`s for lows and 70`s for highs.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions expected across the region
tonight as high pressure settles over the region. Calm winds and
rain from today will allow widespread fog to develop. Currently,
fog and IFR and lower restrictions are occurring at
RME/ELM/ITH/BGM and are expected to continue into the mid-
morning hours. SYR and AVP should see MVFR restrictions at
first, with IFR to follow later tonight into the mid-morning
hours.
IFR restrictions will lift by mid-morning across the region,
with periods of MVFR/VFR ceilings through the afternoon. Another
round of rain will move into the region this evening from the
SW. IFR restrictions will be possible, but confidence was not
high enough to include them at this time. All terminals should
see MVFR/Fuel Alt restrictions in rain by 01-03z.
Outlook...
Wednesday night through Thursday...Showers and associated
restrictions likely.
Friday through Saturday...Generally VFR, but still a chance for
some showers.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...JTC

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion