Jacob Lake, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

959
FXUS65 KFGZ 292103
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
203 PM MST Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Look for mainly dry conditions and generally pleasant
fall weather into the weekend. Weather disturbances brushing
Arizona on Tuesday and again on Friday will deliver gusty winds
for much of our area along with isolated showers toward the Utah
border.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A mainly dry southwest slow will set up over Arizona
over the coming week with periodic troughs delivering gusty winds
and slight chances for showers along the Arizona/Utah border.
For tonight...Southwest flow aloft will become established over
Arizona. As a result, look for mostly clear skies, light winds
and seasonable but chilly overnight low temperatures.
On Tuesday...A fast moving shortwave trough will brush the state.
The most noticeable difference will be stronger winds which will
generally be from the southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25
mph. There will be some upward dynamics and moisture associated
with the trough delivering a slight chance of showers (around
10%) to the Kaibab Plateau area. Otherwise, look for mainly sunny
skies and a bit warmer temperatures.
For Wednesday and Thursday...The trough heads eastward leaving
behind mainly clear skies and south to southwest daytime winds of
5 to 15 mph with a few higher afternoon gusts. Daytime
temperatures warm a bit with overnight lows remaining seasonably
chilly.
From Friday onward...A stronger trough will brush the state with
strong and gusty southwest winds expected on Friday. Depending on
the timing of the trough there could be gusts to near 40 mph on
Friday. In addition, the trough will bring with it additional
moisture and stronger upward dynamics. At this time, the main
focus (and that`s not saying much) will be along the Arizona/Utah
border where a forecast of few showers through the day Friday
looks like a good bet. The weekend weather looks fair and breezy
before and even stronger trough approaches for the start of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...Monday 29/18Z through Tuesday 30/18Z...Mostly VFR
conditions. Patchy fog and brief low ceilings possible overnight,
especially south of KJTC. Winds are S-SW 5-15 kts, becoming light
and VRB or terrain driven overnight.
OUTLOOK...Tuesday 30/18Z through Thursday 02/18Z...VFR conditions.
Winds are SW 5-15 kts each afternoon, light and VRB during the
overnight periods.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Higher humidity lingers with
near normal temperatures. Isolated showers possible across the
Kaibab Plateau on Tuesday. Minimum RH is 20-40% on Tuesday, then
20-35% on Wednesday. Winds are south-southwest 10-15 mph with
gusts 20-25 mph on Tuesday, becoming southwest 5-15 mph on
Wednesday.
Thursday through Saturday...Above normal temperatures through Friday
then cooling Saturday. Minimum RH values slightly drier, between 15-
30% each afternoon. Winds are southwest 5-15 mph on Thursday. Breezy
conditions on Friday with southwest winds 10-20 mph and gusts up to
35 mph. Winds become southwest through west 5-15 mph on Saturday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion