Jensen, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

919
FXUS65 KGJT 212342
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
542 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will continue
  this afternoon favoring the high terrain north of I-70. More
  widespread coverage is expected Monday.
- Localized moderate to heavy rainfall, gusty winds and small
  hail are all possible with these storms.
- Drier air returns Tuesday with the next chances for
  precipitation possible next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 324 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon mainly
across the high terrain north of I-70 as expected. Coverage has
been isolated to widely scattered at best with pop and drop type
although the better convection appears to be over the eastern
Uintas. The latest HRRR indicates storms continuing to fire off
the high terrain and drift into the northern valleys along the
CO-WY border with showers continuing overnight as a shortwave
trough drops in from the northwest. This trough will move
through the region from northwest to southeast, resulting in
showers and thunderstorms becoming widespread across much of the
region. While we won`t see moisture from the low off the SoCal
coast, we will see moisture increasing from the northwest low as
PWAT anomalies increase to around 160 to 180 percent of normal,
with some pockets of up to 200 percent of normal in some areas.
The 18Z sounding today shows an increase in PWAT up to 0.78
inches from yesterday and a bit more mid level moisture.
However, a decent capping inversion remains at the mid levels
that seems to be hindering more robust convection from
developing today. Gusty outflow winds remain the primary concern
with storms today but we should have a much better chance at
wetting rain with moderate to heavy rates in some storms on
Monday. CAPE is much better for areas north of I-70 on Monday
with about 200 to 400 J/kg with a good amount of shear so small
hail, moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds will be the main
concerns. The jet streak will be laying across the southern
portion of the area so the north will be in the favored left
exit region of the upper level jet. The question is how much
cloud cover is present from the overnight shower activity, which
could inhibit stronger convection. As the trough exits Monday
night, there looks to be lingering convection along the northern
and central Divide with potential for a couple inches of snow
at the highest peaks. Near normal temperatures expected today
will drop on Monday with the trough passage and increased
showers and clouds to about 10 degrees below normal across the
north and around 5 degrees below normal along and south of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 324 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
On Tuesday, the low pressure will cross the Divide and eject
out over the Plains. Lapse rates steeping behind the low and if
there is any lingering moisture it may allow for showers mainly
over the higher terrain. A weak ridge builds over the area on
Wednesday and Thursday causing conditions to dry out.
Temperatures will warm up a few degrees due to the ridge and
lack of precipitation. On Friday and next weekend a closed low
pressure is forecasted to drift over the Desert Southwest. As
that occurs it will open the door to southerly flow here, which
may advect moisture in from New Mexico. As a result chances for
precipitation increase especially across the southern CWA.
Details on how the low pressure evolves are still unknown. One
thing that is consistent is this system may move fairly slow and
could hang around the Southwest into early next week. But there
are signs the track could go into northern Mexico, which would
limit anything here.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue
through the overnight mostly along and north of I-70. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms spread south across the
central and southern mountains between 12Z and 18Z with coverage
becoming scattered to numerous along and north of I-70. Mostly
thunderstorms will continue past 18Z with most TAF sites seeing
brief periods below ILS breakpoints with passing storms.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...DB

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion