Jolon, California Weather Forecast Discussion

294
FXUS66 KMTR 012352 AAA
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
Issued by National Weather Service Eureka CA
452 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Light beneficial rain at times through Thursday.
- Warming and drying trend Friday and Saturday with gusty
   northwest winds.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 440 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Aviation section update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 115 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025
(This evening through Thursday)
A deep low pressure system, currently centered just west of
Vancouver Island will move little through Thursday, before quickly
dipping southward and through northern California Friday into
Saturday. A band or two of light showers will move through the
region through Thursday, with minimal impacts. The one caveat
being in unlikely but non-zero chance of a thunderstorm or two,
especially on the back edge of either band, which could result in
a brief heavy downpour or gusty winds. Cooler air behind these
fronts will bring a slight cooling trend each day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 115 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Northwest winds will accelerate quickly Friday and Saturday as the
frontal bands move through and the core of the low approaches. A
few Wind Advisories may be needed. The cooling trend will
continue.
Meanwhile higher surface pressure will build over the northern
Rockies through the weekend. The gradient across the pressure
field will support some northerly, offshore wind from Saturday -
Monday. Typically these winds pose a fire weather concern.
Fortunately the antecedent conditions and wind strength are
mitigating factors. The PGE-WRF ensemble shows the SFO-WMC
gradient bottoming out around -2 to -6 mb. Enough for offshore
winds, but not a particularly strong event.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 440 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Itll be a mix of IFR/MVFR ceilings and visibilities tonight
through Thursday morning. Scattered showers will continue across
the forecast area with a slow moving frontal boundary. Conditions
gradually improving to VFR by late Thursday morning and afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR-MVFR with west to northwest wind 5 to 10
knots.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR lowering to IFR conditions
tonight and Thursday morning. A few showers are expected through
the period. Conditions improving to MVFR-VFR by late Thursday
morning and afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 115 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Small Craft Advisory level northwesterly seas around 10 feet will
continue into Thursday morning. Northwest winds will increase
quickly Thursday afternoon through Friday with steep seas. Local
Gales are possible, especially south of Monterey. Light off and on
again showers are possible into Thursday.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RK
LONG TERM....RK/Flynn
AVIATION...RC
MARINE...RK
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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion