Jones Springs, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

114
FXUS61 KLWX 251427
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1027 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure and its associated cold front will
bring widespread showers and a few strong thunderstorms to the
region today. The front pushes east of the region late tonight
into Friday before stalling southeast of the area this weekend.
This will lead to continued shower and thunderstorm chances
throughout the weekend, especially south of Washington, D.C.
High pressure over eastern Canada builds south early next week
while a tropical system lifts northward across the western
Atlantic. Depending on track, additional rainfall chances are
possible next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A shield of light to moderate rainfall continues to race off
toward the northeast this morning. After impacting the D.C. and
Baltimore metros during the morning rush hour, this band of rain
has finally moved into far northeastern Maryland. In the wake,
an expansive area of low/mid clouds remain in place with
temperatures holding steady in the low 70s. Conditions have
stayed saturated with dew points staying fairly close to the
current temperatures. Moisture levels remain quite elevated with
near record precipitable water values observed at KIAD (just
over 2 inches).
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today as a
positively tilted longwave trough and surface cold front slowly
push through the region. Expect anomalous moisture to remain given
the fact that rich deep layer moisture will continue to
increase ahead of the incumbent trough/surface cold frontal
boundary.
After the mentioned first wave of showers exits the area, the atmosphere
should have a chance to reload this afternoon and evening
ahead. Some uncertainty remains into how much clearing that we
do see given the morning activity and incumbent trough/surface
cold front nearby. Even with that said, the added lifting
mechanism of the trough/front and leading shortwave energy
should aid in higher convective chances this afternoon. The
Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5)
for severe weather today east of the Allegheny Mountains. The
main threat is damaging winds and heavy rainfall with a
secondary threat of an isolated tornado. CAPE values look to sit
between 1000-2000 j/kg with deep layer shear around 40 to 50
kts. This should lead to some organization if storms are to
materialize (i.e line segments or even a supercell or two). The
NAM3km/NSSL/ARW remain the aggressors when it comes to curved
hodographs with 0-1 SRH values up around 200-250 m2/s2. The
RAP/HRRR show less values and less of a curved signature. With
that said, the tornado threat would remain isolated (i.e via
supercell or most likely in a QLCS type of scenario) with a
focus east of US-15. Greatest concern for severe weather if it
were to occur would be between 4-8pm as the front crosses. Once
again the threat will be highly dependent upon cloud cover and
how quickly things can reload after this morning`s rainfall.
Afternoon high`s will reach into the upper 70s and low 80s
(upper 60s and low 70s mountains).
The front will push east of the area late tonight with scattered
showers lingering into the overnight period. Winds will switch from
the southwest to northwest yielding decreasing dewpoints heading
into Friday morning. Lows will range from the upper 50s and low 60s
west of the Blue Ridge to upper 60s across the I-95 corridor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front looks to sit just east of the Chesapeake Bay
Friday morning. A few lingering showers may be possible for
areas east of I- 95 and down across southern MD and the northern
neck of VA. Clouds will gradually thin with filtered breaks of
sunshine, especially later in the day and in areas mainly north
of I-66/US-50. The front itself will continue toward the
Delmarva coast before stalling into the upcoming weekend. With
the frontal zone nearby expect continued scattered shower
chances in areas south of I-66 (central VA Piedmont) Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. High temperatures Friday will
push back into the upper 70s and low 80s (upper 60s and low 70s
mountains). Overnight lows Friday night will fall back into mid
to upper 50s west of I-81 with low to mid 60s further east.
Surface high pressure tries to build back into the region from the
Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal
boundary will remain in the vicinity of the lower Delmarva coast and
Carolinas with an upper level low pressure system cutoff within the
mean flow over the southern Appalachians. In addition to this
Tropical Storm Humberto will continue further north toward the
Bahamas and southeast U.S coast late Saturday into Sunday. The
interaction amongst all these surface/upper level features could
lead to a pseudo PRE event across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
region as early as Saturday night into Sunday morning. Lots of
uncertainty remains in regards to where this event will occur given
the interaction and overall placement of the aforementioned features
above. The dynamics are there though given the approaching
upper level trough and surface cold front, low pressure to the
south, and influx of tropical moisture along the stalled
boundary at the coast. Something that will have to continue to
monitor in the coming days ahead. Either way if this were to
occur we could be looking at drought busting rainfall for much
of the region to round the weekend into early next. Highs
Saturday will range from the mid to upper 70s over central and
northeast MD to mid 60s and low 70s over the mountains/Shenadoah
Valley. Lows Saturday night will fall back into the upper 50s
and low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UL troughing and an associated cut-off ULL over the southern
Appalachians will meander over the same general area through much of
the long term. For Sunday, rather interesting set up with some model
guidance and ensemble suites starting to hint at a pseudo PRE event
with heavy rain in the Mid-Atlantic. Lots of uncertainties wrt
placement and actual occurrence, but dynamics are there: approaching
trough and sfc cold front with UL right entrance of jet streak, some
MUCAPE with low-level stability, and near record PWs. Depending on
timing may start before sunrise Sunday, and go into Monday, but
something to keep an eye on.
Thereafter, attention turns to the tropics and how Tropical Storm
Humberto interacts with invest 94L and the trough across the eastern
CONUS. Lots of uncertainties and NHC has the latest official
forecast at hurricanes.gov.
Temperatures will be in the 70s each day with higher elevations
staying in the 60s. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s for
those east of the Blue Ridge and 50s for those along and west.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Some residual light drizzle or mist is possible this morning as
showers depart off into far northeastern Maryland. Residual IFR
to MVFR ceilings persist, but with gradual improvements possible
depending on location.
Sub-VFR conditions will continue at times this afternoon and evening
as a cold front crosses the region. A brief lull in precipitation
will occur between 15-19z/11am-3pm across the terminals as the
first wave of precipitation exits northeast and cold front lags
behind. The cold front/upper level trough look to cross the area
tonight into Friday morning. Ahead of the front expect
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Some of these
storms could be strong with wind as the primary concern. Went
with PROB30s at all the terminals between the 20-02z/4-9pm for
the greatest potential of thunderstorm development. Cloud cover
could be a limiting factor once again depending on how quickly
rain exits this morning and if any breaks in the mid and high
level cloud deck were to occur this afternoon. Any convection
will wane after sunset with leftover showers in the wake of the
front late tonight into Friday morning. Cigs will be slow to
improve with sub-VFR conditions hanging on at terminals south of
KDCA through Friday night as the front stalls nearby.
Winds today will remain out of the south/southwest at 5 to 15 kts
with gusts up to 20 kts at times during the afternoon and evening
hours. Winds shift to west-northwesterly behind the front at 5 to 10
kts.Winds remain light out of the east and northeast Saturday,
blowing up to 10 knots. Winds become light and variable Saturday
night. VFR conditions are expected through Saturday afternoon with
precipitation chances (especially south of KMRB and KBWI leading to
periods of sub-VFR conditions.
Restrictions possible Saturday night into Monday depending on track
and timing of front and associated rain. Winds light with a
northerly component through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the southern
portions of the waters as southerly channeling enhances wind
fields through this evening. Gusts up to 20 knots are possible,
with 10 to 15 knots elsewhere.
Shower and thunderstorm chances look to continue today as a cold
front finally works across the waters. Showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms are expected this morning with additional coverage
this afternoon and evening. Cold frontal convection may impact the
waters Thursday evening which may warrant a Special Marine Warning
or two. The front does not look to cross until late tonight into
early Friday morning. Winds switch to the west and northwest in the
wake of the front, but will likely stay below SCA levels
Friday.
Overall wind fields should stay below advisory thresholds Saturday
given a relaxed gradient. Speeds will sit at less than 10 kts.
No marine hazards expected Sunday and Monday as winds remain
light with a northerly component.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies are forecast to remain slightly elevated through
today, so additional near minor flooding is possible at
sensitive locations such as Annapolis. This is most likely with
the higher daily tide cycle this afternoon and evening, with
the strongest onshore flow and highest anomalies possible ahead
of the front swinging through.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ533-534-
     537-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BRO/EST
NEAR TERM...BRO/EST
SHORT TERM...EST
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...BRO/CPB/EST
MARINE...CPB/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion