Joshua Tree, California Weather Forecast Discussion

772
FXUS65 KVEF 042145
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
245 PM PDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A Freeze Warning has been issued for Esmeralda and central Nye
  Counties as the first freeze of the season is expected for the
  Dyer, NV area.
* Temperatures will gradually warm back up to near normal by the
  middle of the week. This warming trend will be accompanied by dry
  and mild weather across the region.
* Weather at the end of the week may become wet and unsettled as a
  tropical system interacts with an upper-level trough moving into
  the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through next Saturday.
The first freeze of the season is on tap for the Dyer/Fishlake
Valley area in Esmeralda County, where a Freeze Warning has been
issued. Overnight temperatures are expected to drop to 32F by early
tomorrow morning as light winds and clear skies help to maximize
radiational cooling. This first freeze signifies the end of the
growing season, and steps should be taken to protect sensitive
plants and vegetation from the cold.
Elsewhere across southern Nevada, southeastern California, and
northwestern Arizona, weather will remain relatively unremarkable
over the weekend and into next week. The breezy north winds
associated with the cold front that moved through overnight and
early this morning will gradually decrease throughout the day with
no significant winds expected through mid-week. Southwesterly flow
aloft will persist through much of next week as we remain in a
trough-y pattern with low pressure off the coast of California. This
southwesterly flow will allow for dry conditions to continue
through at least Wednesday. Temperatures will gradually increase
each day, rebounding back up to near normal by the middle of the
week.
Forecast confidence decreases as we head into the latter half of the
week due to uncertainty regarding how future tropical system
Priscilla will interact with an upper-level trough as it digs along
the West Coast. Convection will continue to organize around the area
of low pressure off the coast of southwestern Mexico, strengthening
to a named tropical system by the end of the weekend. This system
will be named Priscilla. Priscilla will move northwest throughout
the week, drawing moisture up the Gulf of California before
eventually interacting with a trough as it digs along the West
Coast. The current forecast shows precipitation chances
increasing late next week into the weekend as a result of
Priscilla and the incoming trough. However, there remains much
uncertainty at this time regarding precipitation amounts and the
timing of said precipitation as this will all depend on how far
north Priscilla tracks, where she is in relation to the trough,
how strong the trough is, and how quickly the trough swings
through the Southwestern United States. Current outcomes range
from no precipitation to potentially major impacts for portions
of our forecast area should we see the wetter scenario play out.
We will continue to monitor forecast trends and provide updates as
confidence improves.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Northerly
winds will continue into the evening before swinging to a more
westerly direction through the overnight hours. Overnight wind
direction may become more variable at times, but wind speeds will
remain light. Winds will pick up and swing to the north around
mid-morning, gradually veering around to a more easterly direction
through the late morning and into the afternoon. VFR conditions
will persist through the TAF period.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Breezy northerly
winds will continue to settle down as we head into the evening
hours. Winds will tend to shift to their favored nocturnal
directions during the overnight hours, with light and variable
winds possible at times. Winds will swing back to the north across
southern Nevada and down the Colorado River Valley tomorrow
morning, while winds in the Owens Valley and western Mojave Desert
tend to follow more typical daily directional trends.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Stessman
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion