Kaibito, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

431
FXUS65 KFGZ 281916
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1216 PM MST Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
through this evening. Due to the saturated conditions in some
areas, stronger storms may produce flash flooding. Expect dry and
warmer weather next week, with increased southwesterly breezes.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Today...An upper-level low currently situated over
Kingman will slowly move eastward through the day as it begins to
lift and weaken. With abundant sub-tropical moisture still in
place, along with the large-scale dynamics from the low, scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop
across northern Arizona. This trend is expected to continue
through the afternoon and into the early evening hours.
Given the increased moisture leading to very heavy rainfall rates,
flash flooding will remain the primary concern going into the
afternoon. However, faster storm motions around 15-20 kts will limit
the residency time of any given storm. Thus, the most likely areas
to see flash flooding will be areas that see training storms or rain
sensitive areas (i.e. slot canyons and burn scars).
Monday through Saturday...As the trough departs the region, warmer
temperatures and mainly dry conditions look to return. A couple of
showers near the White Mountains can not be totally ruled out on
Monday, but the vast majority of the area will remain dry.
A weak trough looks to brush just to the north of Arizona on
Tuesday, this will likely only bring some slightly breezier afternoon
winds and high clouds. A brief sprinkle or two will be possible
mainly around the Kaibab Plateau, but otherwise dry conditions look
to prevail.
Heights continue to rise through the middle of the week as high
pressure builds to the south and east. Dry conditions and warming
temperatures look to continue as a result. Near the end of the week,
a trough looks to move into the Great Basin, however the only
impacts to this look to once again be breezier winds and a slight
dip in temperatures by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...Sunday 28/18Z through Monday 29/18Z...Mainly VFR, some
isolated MVFR due to lingering low clouds or heavier SHRA/TSRA.
Some patchy fog Monday morning could lead to brief MVFR/IFR at
KFLG and KGCN. Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA continue through
about 02-03Z Monday, then things clear out. Gusty and erratic
winds near SHRA/TSRA otherwise winds S-SW 10kts daytime, light and
variable or terrain driven overnight.
OUTLOOK...Monday 29/18Z through Wednesday 01/18Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation expected. Winds S-SW 5-15kts, gusts to 20kts
during the daytime, light and variable or terrain driven
overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Expect drier conditions both
days with daytime temperatures warming up to near normal by
Tuesday. Winds S 5-15 mph both days.  Minimum RH values 25-40%
Monday, dropping to 20-35% on Tuesday.
Wednesday through Friday...Dry with daytime temperatures near early
October averages. Winds S 10-20 mph.  Minimum RH values 20-30%
Wednesday, 15-25% Thursday and Friday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion