Kawkawlin, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

375
FXUS63 KDTX 191653
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1253 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry today and most of tomorrow, with a low chance for showers
  starting late tomorrow night.
- Warmer Sunday with afternoon showers and storms likely, then
  cooler and wetter Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
SE Michigan is influenced by both northern Ontario high pressure and
a front stalled just south of the Ohio border this afternoon through
tonight. Ongoing NE boundary layer flow is rich enough in moisture,
especially with a boost from Lake Huron, for borderline MVFR/VFR
stratocu as heating ramped up since sunrise. Coverage is projected
to hold mainly north of PTK while trending more into VFR this
afternoon. Otherwise, the stalled front occasionally produces mid
level VFR clouds across the area with a component of Lake Erie MVFR
stratocu also possible in a veering wind trend later tonight and
Saturday morning.
For DTW/D21 Convection... No thunderstorms expected tonight and
Saturday.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
DISCUSSION...
For this morning... The combination of prior day precipitation
through the Tri-Cities and portions of the Thumb, coupled with weak
moisture advection from Lake Huron with the light northeasterly
flow, has brought a combination of low stratus and variable fog for
these aforementioned locations. Some continued expansion of the above
will be possible through the southern portions of the cwa fueled
more by the calmer winds and radiational cooling. Daytime heating
through the late morning and afternoon hours will aid in lifting
ceilings and eventually scouring out cloud cover as an encroaching
upper- level low over the Plains reinforces a shortwave ridge across
the Great Lakes. This will promote dry weather, outside of a very low
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NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion