Kennebec, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

346
FXUS63 KABR 011123 AAA
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
623 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm temperatures (highs in the 80s, 20-25 degrees
above normal) expected through the rest of the work week.
- Southerly wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected today before
diminishing for tonight and Thursday.
- Pattern change for the weekend, with peak chances for rain (40-
60%) Saturday night into Sunday, and cooler temperatures (highs in
the 60s) from Sunday onward.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 442 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Southerly flow and the associated 30 to 35 kt llj are generating
showers from the Missouri river valley to the Coteau early this
morning. So far, any lightning has remained in ND or south of this
cwa. This activity is expected to taper off through this morning,
though may need to extend pop mention across the far east until noon
if daytime heating and southwest flow aloft don`t help shut it down.
All hi-res models have it ending around 15z, but most CAMs also
hadn`t initialized overnight coverage as robustly as is now apparent
on radar. Potential exists for additional showers in a llj east of
the James Valley this evening. A little less certain on how any
drying effects of a southwesterly downslope component may play out
along and east of the Coteau, though.
Above normal temperatures will persist through Thursday though good
southerly mixing will weaken as weak sfc low pressure moves into
central SD late today. Southerly winds are expected to gust around
30 to 40 mph with strongest gusts from the Missouri River to the
Coteau, ahead of the low. This low/trough pushes east through the
cwa by early Thursday morning, shutting down the llj. Generally dry
conditions expected during the daytime hours. Highs climb 20 to 25
degrees above normal (low to mid 80s) for early October both today
and Thursday, though are still forecast to be about 5 to 10 degrees
below record highs for Oct 1 and 2 (upper 80s to mid 90s).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 442 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Gusty winds return on Friday due to the influence of a developing
low pressure center to the west and the subsequent re-tightening of
the pressure gradient. The low-level jet that sits overhead peaks at
up to 40 knots Friday morning, but by the time afternoon mixing will
allow for gusts to mix to the surface, the strongest part of the jet
will have progressed to the north out of the CWA. Still, southerly
winds are expected to gust to 25-35 miles per hour across the
forecast area Friday afternoon. The continued presence of dew points
in the upper 50s will help keep afternoon humidity high enough (~30-
40% at minimum) for the area to remain above Red Flag Warning
criteria. Another low-level jet of similar strength moves over the
area Saturday, bringing strong gusts of 30-40 miles per hour to
mainly northeastern South Dakota Saturday afternoon.
This weekend, an upper-level trough will move overhead and drag a
cold front over the area. Development along this front brings the
next chance for precipitation into the area. Model soundings are not
conducive to severe weather, mainly due to weak lapse rates
significantly reducing CAPE. The forcing from the front will likely
still be enough to create updrafts strong enough to produce
lightning, but confidence is low at this point on widespread
thunderstorms. There will be ample shear along the front (up to 40-
50 knots at peak) so that will help sustain the updrafts and
maintain the potential for thunderstorms. Even looking at flooding
as a potential hazard, the lack of CAPE, PWATs below the 75th
percentile, and shallow warm cloud layer all work against this as a
hazard. The QPF output in the models is, as a result of the above
limitations, fairly limited for much of the CWA for an approximately
48 hour duration rainfall event. However, the NBM gives higher
chances for increased rainfall over north central South Dakota, with
a 50-65% chance to see 0.5" of accumulation and a 30-50% chance to
see upwards of 1" of accumulation (both of which are for a 48 hour
duration ending Monday at 12Z). Chances of seeing these higher
amounts of rain decrease as you move further east and south across
the CWA from north central South Dakota.
Behind the cold frontal passage, temperatures will drop
significantly, with an expected 15-20 degree decrease in high
temperatures between Saturday and Sunday. Near-normal to below
normal temperatures in the 60s will stick around through the first
part of next week. Low temperatures will generally  be in the low to
mid 40s, but some areas are currently forecast to dips into the
upper 30s. At this time range a lot could change with these lows, so
trends will be monitored in the upcoming days for the frost
potential early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions are expected through tonight. Southerly winds with
gusts to 30 kts will diminish this evening from west to east.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...20

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion