Kent Woodlands, California Weather Forecast Discussion

441
FXUS66 KMTR 061147
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
447 AM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1250 AM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025
- Cooler weather continues into next week.
- Chance for light rain early next week across the North Bay.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1250 AM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025
(Today and tonight)
Conditions at the surface are fairly similar to 24 hours ago,
however the satellite picture shows a much more patchy stratus
layer over the ocean. This indicates some dry air intrusion, which
will likely limit drizzle this morning. As a result we`ve decided
to remove drizzle from the forecast this morning, but some coastal
areas could still see a few small drops through the early morning
hours. Otherwise the skies will mostly clear in the late morning
with gentle to moderate onshore winds. Temperatures will remain
cooler than normal, similar to yesterday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1250 AM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025
(Sunday through Friday)
The 500 mb trough offshore will gradually deepen and approach the
coast through the weekend. This system is supported in the upper
levels by a dip in the PFJ brought on by a low pressure system
dropping down from the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, a cold
front will push through on Monday, accompanied by a moisture plume
with PW around 1.0". This front has a decent chance to bring
light pre-frontal rain to the North Bay with lower chances further
south. After the front passes, cold air aloft will decrease the
stability and bring a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
front Monday night through Wednesday. The ECMWF lightning flash
density product suggests the best chance is across the North and
East Bay on Wednesday afternoon. The ECMWF point sounding for
Santa Rosa shows surface based CAPE jumps to 580 J/kg, which is
very skinny and highly dependent on surface temperature. An LREF
analysis shows the mean CAPE closer to 150 J/kg, suggesting ECMWF
is on the high end of the guidance envelope. We`ll have to wait
for more high resolution CAMs to resolve this instability, but
either way this pattern will continue to bring cool humid
conditions with periods of gusty winds. 850 temps and 500 mb
height will gradually rebound late week, likely bringing
temperatures back to normal by the following weekend, but there is
an alternate scenario where a reinforcing trough moves in and
brings another round of disturbed weather.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 447 AM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Satellite imagery and surface observations show stratus /MVFR-IFR-
LIFR/ continues to develop this morning. Stratus will mix out to
the coastline by late morning and afternoon. Stratus /MVFR-IFR/
redevelops tonight and Sunday morning.
Vicinity of SFO...Stratus /MVFR/ prevailing until 19z today then
VFR until stratus /MVFR/ redevelops 05z this evening. West wind
10 to 20 knots today, wind decreasing to near 5 knots tonight and
Sunday morning.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /IFR/ until late morning. VFR
during the afternoon. Stratus /IFR/ returns tonight and Sunday
morning. West to northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 439 AM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Gentle to moderate northwesterly breezes and moderate seas will
prevail through Wednesday. Locally strong gusts can be expected
with the afternoon sea breeze.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa
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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion