Kingston, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

027
FXUS66 KSEW 211652
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
952 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will move through this morning,
bringing a round of widespread rain, breezy winds, and cooler
temperatures today. Drier and warmer weather will return Monday
and linger through much of the week, followed by what looks to
be more typical late September weather for the end of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A surface cold front is
currently progressing across western Washington this morning.
Rain is presently falling across the Olympic Peninsula, and will
track across the interior through the next few hours. Rainfall
amounts remain on track, with around 0.5-1" expected across
parts of the Cascades, with around 0.25-0.5" across the
interior. Quillayute has already received over an inch of rain
up through midnight. The front is very vertically stacked,
meaning that skies are expected to clear up fairly quickly
behind the frontal passage. The exception to that will be the
development of a convergence zone over the central Puget Sound
area, that will keep chances for showers in the forecast through
this afternoon. Very marginal instability with the trough axis
directly overhead this afternoon as well will permit a 10-15%
chance for a couple of isolated lightning strikes with the
convergence zone. Precipitation chances end area-wide this
evening. While this won`t be enough to end fire season, this
will certainly bring a temporary reprieve for the active fires
in the area and help improve air quality.
South to southeasterly winds will continue to increase early this
morning, ahead of the frontal passage. The strongest southerly
winds will be across areas north of Everett in the north interior
where gusts could reach 30-45 mph. Elsewhere, wind gusts look to
remain in the 20-30 mph. Winds will quickly swing over to westerly
behind the front, allowing for a good push of westerlies down the
Strait of Juan de Fuca. Winds over land will begin to weaken
behind the frontal passage (except in areas close to the Strait
and over Whidbey Island).
As for temperatures, lows this morning will be relatively warm as
we remain cloudy and rainy, in the mid to upper 50s. Highs will
be below average, only getting into the mid to upper 60s. Skies
should clear out fairly quickly behind the frontal passage this
evening, allowing for lows Monday morning to fall into the 40s.
Areas of fog are expected Monday morning.
Temperatures will begin to warm as upper level ridging quickly
begins to build and persist through the first half of the week.
Monday`s highs should reach a few degrees on either side of 70,
rising on Tuesday into the 70s to perhaps low 80s south of
Olympia and the Cascade valleys. Lows remain in the mid 40s to mid
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Upper level ridging
looks to hang on into the middle to end of this week. Ensembles
are indicating the ridge beginning to flatten and start to welcome
upper level troughs towards the Pacific Northwest. However, there
is significant uncertainty as to how much or how fast the ridge
will flatten and allow the troughs to reach our region. The mean
solution is temperatures close to climatology, with slight
chances for rain and showers beginning Friday through the weekend.
62
&&
.AVIATION...A mix of ceilings and visibilities this morning, ranging
from VFR to LIFR in the wake of a frontal passage. Latest radar
imagery shows much of the rain has pushed east of the Cascades, with
a few light showers remaining near PAE. Southwesterly flow aloft
will become westerly to northwesterly this afternoon and evening.
Increasing low level onshore flow behind the front will lead to a
brief convergence zone over Puget Sound later this morning.
Improvement into VFR expected in the early afternoon. However, lower
ceilings may persist longer into the afternoon around any lingering
post-frontal convergence. Gusty westerlies today in the Strait of
Juan de Fuca today. Wind speeds at 7-12 kt this morning/afternoon
will ease this evening to around 2-5 kt.
KSEA...Lowered ceilings and visibility continues at the terminal
with the passage of the front. Expecting improvement to VFR after
20z, but will have to monitor convergence zone development, in the
case lower ceilings linger longer than expected. A wind shift
associated with the convergence zone is expected to reach the
terminal between 16z-18z with winds becoming variable or light E/NE
before returning to light southerly this evening.
27/29
&&
.MARINE...Majority of Small Craft Advisories have been
allowed to expire, the only one remaining is the one for the central
and east portions of the Strait of Juan de Fuca for the strong
westerly push today.
Surface high pressure will rebuild across the waters tonight and
Monday behind a weak frontal system. Thermally induced low pressure
will expand northward along the coast on Tuesday turning the flow
northerly or weakly offshore. Onshore flow will resume around
midweek as another frontal system passes well to the north of the
area. 27/29
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$

NWS sew Office Area Forecast Discussion