Kinniconick, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

756
FXUS61 KILN 211831
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
231 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather pattern change to take place with rain and storm chances
on and off through at least midweek. This pattern is likely to
persist with periodic chances for rain lingering through the end of
the week and into next weekend. Above normal temperatures will
continue through early this week before a wetter and cooler pattern
develops midweek and beyond.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A broad southwest flow will advect deeper moisture into the area
with the approach of a mid level shortwave. Low end moderate
instability expected to develop - along with effective shear
approaching 20 kts. Radar and satellite shows development of
scattered convection across the southern FA where the CAP has
eroded. Expect continued development of showers/thunderstorms
with a general eastward progression across the FA thru the
afternoon. A few of the stronger updrafts could produce gusty to
damaging wind gusts.
There will be a decrease in coverage of showers/thunderstorms from
west to east early this evening due to loss of diurnally driven
instby and with the loss of forcing.
However, can not rule out the possibility of a few lingering showers
overnight with an increase in coverage across the west toward
daybreak. Temperatures drop to lows between 60 and 65.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Broad southwest flow aloft with better jet dynamics increasing
Monday with the approach of a shortwave. In response to this s/w
a 30-35kt 8H jet offers moisture advection and PWATs trending well
above normal - above 1.70 inches. Expect coverage of showers and
thunderstorms to increase thru the day with several rounds of
convection possible for any location. Effective shear around 25 kts
may support some organized multicells with a few storms capable of strong
to damaging wind gusts during the afternoon into evening.
Highs Monday top out in the upper 70s northwest to the mid 80s
southeast.
With shortwave rotating thru the area expect widespread shower and
thunderstorms to continue Monday night. The severe threat diminishes
thru the evening with the loss of daytime heating. Low temperatures
bottom out between 60 and 65.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A wet and unsettled weather pattern develops this week across the
Ohio Valley. On Tuesday, zonal upper level flow with embedded
shortwaves troughs overlap with anomalously high PWATs. This setup
allows for generalized shower and storm chances throughout the day.
On Wednesday through Thursday night, a vertically stacked low
pressure system drifts toward the Ohio Valley. While the exact
placement of the low is  bit uncertain, a prolonged period of shower
and storm chances persists with the low off the west and high PWATs
in place. Eventually, the low fills and slowly drifts east of the
area toward the end of the week. Once the low moves east, forcing
and moisture decrease thereby significantly lowering the chance for
precipitation. Temperatures remain warm through the week and
moisture will be fairly high especially compared to the last few
weeks. Rain totals of around 2 inches are possible through the
middle of the week. This rain should help improve the drought
conditions that have developed.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak mid level shortwave combined with low end moderate instability
will result in the continued development of scattered thunderstorms.
These storms to show a general eastward progression across the FA
thru the afternoon. A few of the stronger updrafts could produce
gusty to damaging wind gusts. There will be a decrease in coverage
of showers/thunderstorms from west to east early this evening due to
loss of diurnally driven instby and with the loss of forcing. However,
can not rule out the possibility of a few lingering showers
overnight with an increase in coverage across the west toward
daybreak. Have tempo groups in the southwest where coverage is best
and PROB30 elsewhere.
A better shortwave comes into play Monday with some showers/thunderstorms
possible in the west toward day break and then increasing in coverage
thru the afternoon. Have included PROB30 at all TAF sites. The
potential for MVFR to brief IFR conditions are possible in storms
with an increase in moisture.
Southwest winds around 10 kts will gust up to 20 kts outside of
storms and then decrease to less than 10 kts overnight. Southwest
winds around 10 kts are expected Monday with gusts up to 20 kts
during the afternoon.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR

NWS ILN Office Area Forecast Discussion