Kinsley Ranch, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

516
FXUS65 KTWC 082211
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
311 PM MST Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Modest drying will allow a reduction in shower and
thunderstorm activity this week. Still just enough moisture for
slight chances of showers and thunderstorms each day, generally in
the higher terrain and to the south and east of Tucson. Expect some
breezes Wednesday and Thursday. Most of the week will have near
normal temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...So far this afternoon scattered cumulus was observed
across southeast Arizona. A nose of warm air aloft was noted at
approximately 15,000 feet AGL from our morning sounding. This
feature is making it incredibly difficult for vertical cloud
development keeping the clouds flatter and more cottonball-like.
Over the mountains, air is being forced up into the inversion which
may help tap into the greater instability by early to mid afternoon
over the higher terrain south of Tucson. However, it is looking
increasingly likely that the inversion will inhibit convective
potential.
The main mechanism behind the overall decreasing thunderstorm
chances this week is we are beginning to see signs of the Monsoon
circulation sagging to the south and east. Mean flow is westerly to
northwesterly which does not favor moisture being transported into
southeast Arizona. Thus, we will see even less coverage tomorrow
than today and will continue to rely on recycled moisture to form
cloud buildups and possibly a few showers and storms over the
terrain.
As we continue to dry out, we will also warm up by a couple of
degrees tomorrow and Wednesday with highs ranging from the low to
mid 90s in Santa Cruz and Cochise counties to near the 100 degree
mark elsewhere. Minor to moderate HeatRisk will prevail as highs
will be slightly above normal (+2 to +4 degrees) for this time of
year across southeast Arizona.
Wednesday we could see some moisture increase into the area (mainly
from Tucson eastward and along the AZ/NM border) as the mean flow
begins to turn southerly and a longwave trough centered over the
Great Basin approaches the area. Kept slight chances (10-20%) for
precipitation with the moisture uptick for eastern areas. Breezy to
gusty west to southwest winds will be possible out ahead of the
trough Wednesday afternoon through Friday afternoon as the surface
gradient tightens locally. At this time, the winds appear result in
only minor nascence impacts mainly across Pima and Santa Cruz
counties. However, went ahead and enhanced winds locally for those
areas as there could be patchy blowing dust if trends in winds
continue to increase in future forecast packages.
Friday into the weekend the mean flow will become westerly to
southwesterly as the trough lifts out of the Great Basin and
advances. This transition will scour out any remaining moisture
across southeast Arizona and allow temperatures to return to near
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 10/00Z. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms (-SHRA/-TSRA) thru 09/03Z and will likely remain in
the vicinity of KOLS, with low confidence impacting the terminal
directly today. With any storms today expect variable and gusty
winds up to around 35 knots. Otherwise, SFC winds should remain
fairly light less than 10-12 knots, NW/W-ly thru 09/03Z and again
from 09/20Z thru the end of the period, SE/E-ly from 09/03Z thru
09/19Z. Sfc winds Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Minimum relative humidities 15 to 30 percent much
of this week. Just enough moisture today and Tuesday for a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms focused in the higher terrain
from Tucson south and eastward. Thereafter, slight chances of
showers and thunderstorms mainly from Tucson eastward mid to late
week before drying resumes again this weekend. Expect gusty and
erratic winds in or near any thunderstorms. Otherwise, surface winds
will be mostly light through Tuesday, with breezy to gusty winds
Wednesday through Thursday, bringing gusts to around 20-35 mph. High
temperatures near normal for most of this week.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Public...DVS
Aviation...Tetrault
Fire Weather....Tetrault
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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion