Kirtley, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

050
FXUS64 KEWX 210632
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
132 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued warm conditions this weekend into next week.
- Confidence is increasing in rain chances Tuesday through
  Thursday (currently 20-60%).
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
An upper level ridge covers the southwestern quadrant of the US
resulting in west-northwesterly flow over Texas. High pressure
over the northern Gulf coast has the low level flow from the
southeast. The airmass is warm and moist with temperatures in the
middle 70s to lower 80s and dewpoints from the lower 60s to lower
70s. The upper ridge will shift toward the east during this
period. The low level flow will continue from the southeast
reinforcing the warm, moist airmass. There may be enough lift over
the Coastal Plains to generate isolated to scattered showers or
thunderstorms each afternoon today and Monday. Elsewhere the upper
ridge will suppress any convection. High temperatures today will
be about the same as Saturday, and they will increase a couple of
degrees Monday with continued warm advection.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Monday night into Tuesday an upper level low will move out of the
Central Rockies and open into a wave. This will push of ridge
toward the southeast. At the same time a cold front will move
through the Texas Panhandle. Southeasterly low level flow will
continue over our CWA, and rain chances will continue over the
Coastal Plains Tuesday afternoon. However, with the approach of
the front to Central Texas there will be slight chances for
convection over our northern area. Tuesday night the front will
move through Central Texas and Wednesday through our CWA. This
will bring showers and thunderstorms through South-Central Texas.
The best chances will be during the afternoon Wednesday. The front
will stall somewhere near our southern border and low rain chances
will continue Thursday. Friday and Saturday the front will
dissipate and the upper trough will move to the southeasterly
part of the country. This will keep slight chances for showers
and thunderstorms over our CWA mainly during the afternoons.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the early morning hours before
patchy MVFR to local IFR ceilings develop over much of the area. For
terminals, timing for low cloud development will be around 11-13Z
ending around 15-16Z. VFR conditions will then return for the rest
of the day. The opportunity for isolated -SHRA also increases
slightly this afternoon primarily for locations to the east of the I-
35 corridor. Light wind overnight will become south to southeasterly
during the day mainly under 12 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              95  74  97  75 /  10   0  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  73  97  75 /  10   0  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  73  96  74 /  10   0  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            92  72  93  73 /  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           97  76  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  73  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             95  72  96  73 /  10   0  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  72  97  73 /  10   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  73  95  74 /  20   0  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  75  96  76 /  10  10  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           96  75  98  76 /  10   0  10   0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...27

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion