Kirtley, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

935
FXUS64 KEWX 231805
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
105 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front brings temperature relief to some areas Wednesday
  along with rain chances into Thursday.
- Seasonable temperatures return Friday and continue through the
  period.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
We continue to remain under high pressure this afternoon resulting
in one of the hottest days this September with many area heat
indices or feels like temps already over 100 degrees. Don`t
expect temps to cool off much overnight as the moist humid air
sticks around allowing lows to remain in the mid to upper 70s.
Most Hi-res models show a somewhat strong cold front swinging
through the area by mid to late morning mainly affecting the
northern Hill Country with showers and a few storms being
triggered out ahead of it. As we progress through the day
Wednesday expect the front to continue pushing southward
bringing the chance for scattered showers and storms along with
it. SPC continues to highlight a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of
severe storms mainly along and south of an Austin to San
Antonio to Del Rio line. Main timeframe would be in the afternoon
to early evening hours for areas that remain along and south of
the cold front. With little to minimal shear expected, the main
severe weather concern would be for locally strong wind gusts
in any of the stronger storms. Enhanced moisture levels along
and just behind the boundary could lead to some locally heavy
rainfall. As such, WPC has our entire area in a marginal (level
1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall for tomorrow. While some
pockets of heavy rain can be expected given the combination of
the cold front, enhanced moisture and slow-moving nature of the
storms, we are not expecting this to become a widespread heavy
rain event. Most areas could see a quick 1 to 2 inches in any of
the heavier cells that move through. Hi-res models hint at most
of the thunderstorm activity being south of the I-35 Corridor
by late evening, with chances for showers and storms remaining
for those in the Coastal Plains and south of the I-35 Corridor.
Highs tomorrow will generally depend on which side of the
front you end up on. Those north of the front should see highs max
out in the mid 80s to low 90s while those south of the front should
see temps soar back into the mid to upper 90s once again. we should
finally see somewhat cooler temps for Wednesday night after the
frontal passage with many areas remaining in the upper 60s (north)
to lower 70s (south).
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
For the long term drier and cooler air in the lower levels will
filter in behind the boundary on Thursday and this will bring a
decreasing chance of rain from north to south as we progress through
the day. All areas can finally expect a break from the heat as well
on Thursday as highs generally top out in the low to upper 80s as
clouds slowly clear as the front moves off to the south. We really
feel the cooler air come thursday night as temps fall back into 60s
with dewpoints falling into the upper 50s. It certainly will start
to finally feel like fall out there. Friday and Saturday we remain
briefly under weak mid and upper level ridging however, global
models have recently pushed back the the chance of rain over the Rio
Grande keeping it further west into Mexico. Beyond Saturday we
return to more seasonable temperatures with highs in the low 90s and
lows in the mid to upper 60s while also remaining dry until about
mid next week. However, that is beyond this forecast package and as
we know things are likely to change by then so be sure to stay
tuned to the latest forecast as we turn the corner and welcome
in the fall season.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
Morning clouds have lifted and scattered out to VFR this afternoon
as some occasionally gusty south to southeast winds continue. Low
cloud development is anticipated again Wednesday morning at all TAF
sites. Despite the flow in the lower-levels trending move south-
southwest, suspect we will see enough moisture to warrant brief MVFR
cigs at all TAF sites. For the afternoon hours on Wednesday,
attention will turn to a southward-moving cold front. The front
should move across our TAF sites generally in the 18-20Z time frame.
We will add a mention of PROB30 groups for TSRA between 18 and 23Z
to AUS and SAT as the front mixes with daytime heating to produce
SHRA and TSRA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  91  70  90 /  10  70  50  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  93  70  89 /  10  60  50  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  94  70  90 /   0  50  70  40
Burnet Muni Airport            74  84  66  86 /  20  70  40  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           78  94  73  90 /   0  40  70  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  88  67  88 /  20  70  40  10
Hondo Muni Airport             74  94  70  89 /   0  50  70  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  94  70  91 /   0  60  60  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  93  70  89 /   0  70  60  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  94  72  89 /   0  60  70  40
Stinson Muni Airport           77  97  73  90 /   0  50  70  40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM...CJM
AVIATION...Platt

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion