Krebs, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

736
FXUS64 KTSA 230545
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1245 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are expected
this morning for northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Another
round of severe weather is possible for the afternoon and evening
hours.
- A Flood Watch is in effect for northeast Oklahoma, northwest
Arkansas, and west-central Arkansas from 1 AM Tues. until 7 AM Wed.
- Temperatures drop below normal mid week, rising back above
normal by early next week with dry conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The weather for the next couple of hours will be mostly quiet, but
conditions will change quickly for the second half of the night.
CAMs are in good agreement that a line of strong storms will
approach the area from the west. With robust instability, deep
moisture, and sufficient wind shear, some storms are likely to
become severe. The primary threat will be strong damaging winds, but
isolated large hail and QLCS tornadoes may also develop. Most
guidance brings the worst of the weather just north of Tulsa, moving
east into Bartlesville and beyond. But models are not always
correct, so severe weather may extend south into the Tulsa area as
well. These strong to severe storms will move into northwest
Arkansas by mid morning, with scattered activity continuing further
to the west. Storms may weaken somewhat by this point with the loss
of the low level jet, but this outcome is not certain.
Most guidance shows a bit of a lull behind the initial line of
storms. Then, as the cold front approaches in the late morning or
afternoon storms reinvigorate along the front. There is some
question about how much recovery will occur given models continue
some scattered precipitation and cloud cover. With that said, upper
level flow will improve with good low level convergence, yielding
strong hodograph curvature. This is a good setup for supercell
development. Most guidance shows this happening either along the I-
44 corridor or further east, but this is highly dependent on how
quickly recovery can occur. If storm activity is more limited with
the first round, it may help with a quicker recovery for the
afternoon. With all of that said, storms will once again be capable
of strong winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes.
Areas of heavy rain are likely. Given recent rains, and the
additional 1-3" (locally up to 5") there will flood concerns. A
Flood Watch is in effect for most of the area today. Main stem river
flooding may also be a concern depending on where the heaviest
rainfall sets up. High temperatures will be warm, but temperatures
will cool quickly behind the front.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
As the upper level low dips into the area Wednesday one final push
of rainfall is expected. The severe potential will be very low at
this point, with mostly weak thunderstorms. Clouds and precipitation
will keep temperatures down, went below NBM guidance for this period
north of I-40. Skies will clear into Thursday and remain mostly
clear for several days (with just a slight chance of a high terrain
shower in NW AR Thursday). North winds will bring cool and dry air
into the area Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will remain below
seasonal norms, with highs in the 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s
to low 60s.
High pressure will settle over head into the weekend and early next
week, with temperatures gradually moderating to near to slightly
above normal. Mostly clear conditions will continue with little to
no chance of rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
VFR conditions likely prevail through the near term with storms
moving into NE OK terminals near 12z and continuing eastward into
or near far NW AR terminals through the morning. Locally strong
winds will accompany these storms. The associated outflow boundary
and/or the passing cold front will become a focus for mid
afternoon storms to redevelop with severe storms likely along and
ahead of the boundaries through Tuesday evening. Post frontal low
ceilings are likely across portions of NE OK which will prolong
flight level impacts. Storms expected to be confined to far SE OK
and west central AR by the end of this forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  67  75  61 /  80  20  40  10
FSM   88  70  80  65 /  80  80  40  10
MLC   91  67  79  60 /  60  80  20  10
BVO   81  62  73  56 /  90  20  40  10
FYV   82  65  76  58 /  90  80  60  20
BYV   78  65  74  60 /  90  80  60  30
MKO   86  66  77  60 /  70  50  30  10
MIO   77  65  73  58 / 100  20  60  10
F10   89  64  77  58 /  60  30  20  10
HHW   91  68  80  62 /  10  70  20  10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ054>072-074-076.
AR...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion