822 FXUS64 KTSA 240528 AFDTSAArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1228 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- Heavy rainfall potential will continue through early Wednesday morning across western Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma, with a threat for localized flooding.
- Scattered thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon with passage of upper level trough. Severe weather not expected.
- Temperatures drop below normal mid week, rising back above normal by early next week with dry conditions.
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.SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Potential for severe weather has largely ended this evening, though clusters of elevated convection will continue through tonight from northwest AR into southeast OK ahead of Pacific cold front. The threat of additional pockets of heavy rainfall continues along and ahead of this boundary through much of tonight however with a corridor of 2 inch plus Pwat extending from central AR to south central OK. Some areal flooding continues in parts of northwest AR where 3 to 5 inches of rainfall occurred earlier today, so any additional rain at all will exacerbate these conditions. Was able to cancel the Flood Watch for a good portion of eastern OK, with remaining watch still in effect until 12z Wednesday.
Some showers will continue early Wednesday across southeast OK within the plume of deep moisture that will continue to be suppressed south with time. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated Wed afternoon into the evening generally north of I-40, as pocket of colder temps aloft associated with the upper trough moves across the area. Otherwise a much more comfortable afternoon can be expected with highs mostly in the 70s.
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.LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Once we move past Wednesday, the upper trough will move off to the east and ridging aloft sets up for the remainder of the week and likely through the weekend. Temperatures will begin to climb back up above normal again by the weekend, but at least humidity will be lower.
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.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Scattered showers and storms are likely to persist through the overnight hours especially south of Interstate 40. Low clouds and periods of fog and/or drizzle will also overspread the terminals tonight trending to IFR/LIFR conditions toward sunrise at most sites. Flight conditions will remain low through the morning with a slow improvement forecast into the afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated storms likely during the afternoon across NE OK and NW AR. Expect ceilings to impact flight levels past sunset with potential they could return to lower levels as drier air is slow to spread eastward through the area.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 78 61 80 59 / 30 10 0 0 FSM 81 63 81 60 / 20 10 10 0 MLC 81 61 79 56 / 20 10 0 0 BVO 75 56 80 54 / 40 10 0 0 FYV 76 58 77 53 / 40 20 10 0 BYV 75 59 75 54 / 60 20 10 0 MKO 78 61 79 56 / 20 10 0 0 MIO 75 58 78 55 / 60 20 0 0 F10 79 59 79 55 / 10 10 0 0 HHW 79 62 79 59 / 30 10 0 0
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.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ068-069-072-074- 076.
AR...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-010-011- 019-020-029.
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SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...07
NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion