La Joya, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

757
FXUS64 KBRO 190550
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1250 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Daily rain chances are expected to continue into next week as
persistent tropical moisture remains in place across Deep South
Texas. A series of upper level disturbances and the daily
afternoon sea breeze will likely provide the forcing necessary to
support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
periodically through the period.
Short term HiRes guidance depicts another round of convection
developing along the coast early Friday morning moving offshore
after sunrise. An additional round of convection will likely
develop late morning through the afternoon as the sea breeze front
moves inland. The best rain chances (30-50%) look be contained to
the Rio Grande Valley, with a 15-30% chance of rain across the
northern counties.
High temperatures look to remain in the 90s through the period,
with overnight lows largely remaining in the low to mid 70s.
Western portions of the CWA may see low temperatures dip into the
upper 60s tonight and Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Primarily VFR through the period with the exception of brief
rounds of showers and thunderstorms early Friday morning (as early
as 08Z) through the afternoon (through at least 22Z at all
sites; afternoon convection along the sea breeze should move
inland and clear BRO before HRL and MFE). Isolated to scattered
showers currently over the Gulf waters and Mexico are propagating
NW - these will continue as the night progresses. There is low
confidence in exact timing and locations of showers/storms, but
most likely timing for any showers/storms to impact a site are
indicated by PROB30 groups. Any convection passing over an
airfield may temporarily reduce vsby and cigs to MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Generally favorable marine conditions are expected to continue
through the period. Daily rain chances will persist through the
period, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible over the Gulf waters. Light to moderate onshore winds and
slight to moderate seas are expected to continue through the
period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             90  76  91  76 /  60  20  60  30
HARLINGEN               92  72  93  73 /  40  10  50  10
MCALLEN                 94  76  96  76 /  50  10  40  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         94  72  96  74 /  40  10  20   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  81  87  80 /  40  30  50  50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  76  90  76 /  40  20  50  30
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...69-HK

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion