Lafayette, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

233
FXUS61 KRNK 111811
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
211 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will keep us dry through the
upcoming weekend and into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Message:
1) Fair weather and near seasonal temperatures.
High pressure centered north of the region will maintain a dry
stable weather pattern with few deviations. Temperatures have
been subtly warming a degree or two each forecast period and
this trend is expected into the upcoming weekend with no
precipitation in sight. Still expecting some patchy fog
overnight, but aside from that no significant weather expected.
Blend of models continues to capture somewhat higher
concentration of cloud cover and dewpoints east of the Blue
Ridge with Piedmont under influence of shallow marine layer
from the coast. Dewpoints AOA 60 east of Highway 29 are not
nearly as pleasant as the 40s being observed across the
mountains. This impacts overall humidity minimums during the
afternoon with driest airmass reflected over the mountains. It
also impacts overnight low temperatures with lower dewpoints
allowing for a continuation of chilly late night temperatures
in the mountain valleys. Shaved 5 degrees off of the model blend
for the mountains with lows once again expected in the
40s...with potential for upper 30s for places like Burkes
Garden. For Friday...MOS looks good areawide with near seasonal
afternoon highs.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Message:
1. Quiet weather continues into through the weekend. Temperatures
trend a few degrees warmer.
Surface high pressure centered over New England will continue over
the through the weekend, though sliding east and offshore during the
forecast period. Narrow ridging at 500mb develops over the central
US, and will expand slightly eastward. The combination of increasing
heights aloft and weakening northeasterly flow will lead to a
warming trend in temperatures, up to 5 degrees or so above normal
for the weekend. Dewpoints will also tick upwards, as the flow
becomes more easterly and transports more moisture in the Piedmont.
Otherwise, the weather will remain benign, making for a pleasant
fall weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1. Dry to start the week, precipitation chances increase after
midweek, though confidence is low.
2. Temperatures near to a few degrees above normal.
Through this forecast period, the dry weather pattern of late will
begin to change, and precipitation chances increase towards the
middle and end of next week. A cold front will drop southward
through the area Monday, reinforcing the dry and cooler airmass
through mid week. As the front slows and looks to stall over the
southeastern US, an upper level low develops along it, and looks to
track along the coast. This could bring some rain, potentially
heavy, to parts of eastern VA and NC. How far west this
precipitation would reach is still uncertain, as guidance diverges
pretty significantly in the location of development, timing, and
evolution of the low. Depending the location, may see chances for
showers along the southern Blue Ridge earlier in the week, with
upslope easterly flow bringing in some moisture from the Atlantic.
Again, details are uncertain and confidence is low in precipitation
probabilities at this time. Could also see breezy winds later in the
week, depending on the strength of the low and resulting pressure
gradient between it and the high pressure from the north.
High temperatures will be near to 6 degrees above normal, in the mid
to upper 70s in the west, and low to mid 80s in the east. Lows will
be more mild, as dewpoints rise, low to mid 50s in the west, and
upper 50s in the east. Temperatures towards the end of the week will
also depend on the movement of the low, as cloud cover and any
precipitation could bring highs down a degree or two.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...
VFR through early tonight then fog possible again at
LYH/DAN/LWB...and within VCNTY of BCB.
Fog expected to dissipate after 13Z Friday with another
day of mainly VFR.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR conditions expected through early next week, outside any
patchy late night/early morning mountain valley fog.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PM

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion