246 FXUS63 KLOT 230749 AFDLOTArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 249 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and some storms possible this afternoon. Additional areas of showers and embedded storms tonight, but the greatest potential currently looks to focus mainly south of the forecast area.
- Intermittent showers may linger across the region Wednesday and overnight, but a trend towards drier conditions is expected through the end of the week and upcoming weekend.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Through early this morning: ongoing disorganized convective clusters currently across McHenry/Lake counties in northeast Illinois, and any additional spotty convection that develops along incoming outflows should gradually weaken and diminish through daybreak. In an unperturbed environment, fog development appears likely given weak near-surface flow and low/minimal dewpoint depressions. However, the presence the aforementioned outflows/gravity waves and debris cloud cover may end up shunting the greatest fog threat south and east of the region. At the current time, the main fog corridor looks to be east of about a Gibson City to Valparaiso line. If the cirrus canopy diminishes across northern Illinois, the fog threat would increase commensurately there as well.
Things looks generally quiet this morning. The one exception might be along and lingering outflow which may continue pushing east towards the I-57/65 corridors. Additionally, this may serve as a mesoscale focus for isolated/widely scattered midday and afternoon convection.
This afternoon and evening, a cold front will shift south out of Wisconsin and down the lake. Dewpoints ahead of this boundary are forecast to remain in the low to mid 60s, with temperatures slated to rise through the upper 70s/near 80 degrees (assuming ongoing convective debris cloud cover thins through the morning). Forecast soundings reveal minimal inhibition to surface-based parcels with a fairly deep (~200 mb) thick low- level moist layer in place. Interestingly, most model guidance fails to convect along this convergent axis, potentially owing to lingering subsidence in the wake of the ongoing convection and generally limited large scale forcing mechanisms upstairs. Still, given the progged instability, elected to maintain 30-40 percent chances for showers/storms along the southward-advancing boundary this afternoon (the ECMWF in particular depicts quite a bit more coverage of afternoon convection). Finally, while 0-6 km shear is forecast to remain under 20-25 kts (owing to weak 500 mb flow), winds will increase towards 400 mb as a jet streak intensifies overhead. Based on forecast parcel profiles and ELs generally under 10 km, this flow should remain immaterial today, but if warmer temperatures/more instability is realized, we`d need to keep an eye on the threat for some stronger and more organized cores.
This evening and overnight, forcing will increase atop the near-surface frontal zone. This should lead to a general increase in the coverage of showers and embedded thunderstorms. As has been the case in this stretch, continue to see significant run-to-run changes in the handling of the pertinent larger scale features. A recent signal additionally shows a compact and potentially fairly deep surface low developing tonight into early Wednesday morning across downstate Illinois into southern Indiana. Latest ensemble output indicates this potential low track remaining south of the region, which would tend to focus the greatest precipitation chances across central Illinois and Indiana. Based on all of this, ended up confining the highest PoPs (low-end likelies) mainly well south of the Kankakee River. If a solution like the current 00z NAM, UKMET, ECMWF materializes, a locally heavy rain threat could be realized immediately to the north of the surface low track into early Wednesday morning as a coupled upper jet interacts with a compact zone of low-mid level convergence/f-gen. Presently, the most concerning signal for this remains just south of the forecast area.
Carlaw
Our region will be solidly post-frontal on Wednesday, with breezy north to northeast winds in place. Aloft, several shortwaves will transit the region, embedded within broad cyclonic flow in place across the Great Lakes. The broad forcing generated by these features in combination with ample moisture will allow scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to persist through the day on Wednesday with the highest coverage (30-40%) focused generally of I-80/east of I-55. While the highest rain chances will gradually shift southward with the cold front Wednesday night, the cooler air associated with the upper-low over the Great Lakes does look to develop some modest lake induced instability. Thus allowing some lake effect showers (and perhaps a storm or two) to linger into Thursday along the northeast IL and northwest IN shores before the low pivots east of the area Thursday night.
Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be the coolest of the week due to the expected cloud cover and lingering rain chances. Therefore, expect highs during this period to top out in the low to mid-70s areawide with lows in the lower to mid-50s.
Heading into Friday, upper ridging is forecast to develop back into the Great Lakes region which will set up another period of dry and above average temperatures to close out September. While another cold front is forecast to dive through our area on Saturday/Sunday, the cold air reservoir behind the front does not appear to be sufficient enough to alter temperatures significantly, except perhaps near the lake. Thus highs should remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s through the weekend with overnight lows in the mid-50s. However, conditions will become more favorable for daily lake breezes towards the later half of the weekend which should keep temperatures cooler (low to mid-70s) at the lakeshore.
Yack/Carlaw
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.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period:
- Scattered thunderstorms through 10Z with a brief window of breezy northwest winds.
- West-southwest winds switch to the northeast tomorrow afternoon
- Chances for showers late in the TAF period, though better coverage expected to the south in Central Illinois
- Potential for MVFR cigs developing tomorrow evening
A broken line of thunderstorms in southern Wisconsin is slowly sinking southward into northern Illinois. Racing out ahead of it is a gust front that will switch the winds to the northwest with gusts up to 25 knots. Behind that wind gust will be chances for thunder to pass by the Chicago terminals. There`s lower confidence in how far south the thunder develops if the outflow races out ahead of it, so it was decided to keep only -SHRA mentioned in the KGYY TAF. Most thunder should have passed terminals by around 10Z, though there is a chance for lingering showers to fester through daybreak.
Behind the showers and storms, winds will weaken but gradually return to the west-southwest. They will increase to around 10 knots through the early afternoon. As a cold front moves south out of Wisconsin and is reinforced by a lake breeze, winds will switch around to the northeast but remain around 10 knots. Stratus will move down behind the front with increasing chances for MVFR cigs into Tuesday evening.
With northeast winds meeting southwest winds, there will likely be a convergent axis that develops late tomorrow where new showers and storms can bloom. Confidence in where that axis will develop is low, though models are showing decent agreement in it developing after 00Z and closer to Central Illinois. There is a chance that showers crop up in the afternoon, but kept the TAFs dry at this range. With lower confidence in exact location and timing, MVFR VCSH was added at the end of the TAF, with a TEMPO at KGYY being closer to the convergent axis.
DK
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.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None.
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