Langley, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

119
FXUS62 KCAE 221040
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
640 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure, dry conditions, and turning hot through mid-week.
Rain chances will then be on the increase into the end of the
week and into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Warmer than average for the first day of fall.
Surface high pressure continues to ridge into the forecast
area, the center of which has shifted well off the coast of New
England. This has led to developing onshore flow in the low
levels. While a gradual increase in moisture is possible with
some low clouds developing early this morning near the I-95
corridor, HREF mean indicates this moisture increase will be
marginal with probability of PWATs less than an inch and a
quarter around 70-90 percent. With a similar synoptic pattern
today, blended guidance favors a persistence forecast for today
with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 and partly cloudy skies.
Low temperatures tonight also expected to be similar, in the low
to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Hot and mainly dry through mid-week.
Upper pattern flattens by Tuesday as a weak shortwave moves east
of the area. This flow pattern will be short lived as a
deepening upper trough across the central U.S. begins to turn
the upper winds more out of the southwest by Wednesday. Surface
ridge axis moves east through the period, allowing more of an
onshore southerly wind pattern through mid-week. Although this
will begin a period of increasing pwats across the region,
limited upper support, and lack of significant low-level
boundaries, should help to keep dry conditions for much of the
forecast area. Best chance for an isolated shower on Tuesday
would reside across the coastal plain as the sea-breeze moves
inland, then across the upstate of SC/GA on Wednesday night as
heights begin to lower ahead of the deepening upper trough.
Highs will bump up into the low 90s for both Tuesday and
Wednesday as warm advection due to southerly winds sets up.
Lows should remain in the mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Rain chances return into late week.
- Above normal temperatures Thursday, then turning cooler.
Deepening trough will remain off to the west, but will
eventually close off across the Gulf Coast States by the end of
the week. Southerly winds both at the surface and aloft will
continue to moisture up the atmosphere into the weekend. Pwat
values rise to just below 2 inches by Friday, which will allow
for more widespread shower and thunderstorm development by the
end of the work week. As we move into the weekend, a surface
cold front will finally be able to work into the area Friday
night into Saturday, then moves off to the east by Sunday. This
should help to usher in slightly cooler temperatures. However
there is still a rather large spread in the ensemble guidance
for daytime highs, which could be due to frontal timing issues,
along with cloud cover and rainfall potentials. So there is a
lower confidence and uncertainty in temperatures by the weekend
at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR Conditions Expected Through the TAF Period.
VFR conditions currently in place at all terminals with a few
passing high clouds. There is some patchy stratus visible on
satellite but seems like it will avoid the terminals. Winds out
of the east today increasing late this morning with cumulus
developing around 4kft. Winds becoming light and variable
tonight. Blended guidance continues to show potential for
restrictions towards the end of the TAF period but has had a
tendency to be too aggressive with restrictions at the end of
the TAF so have left the mention out for now.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periods of early morning
fog/stratus remain possible, especially at AGS and OGB through
the end of the week. Moisture increases mid-week leading to
increasing chances for rain and widespread restrictions.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion