Laws, California Weather Forecast Discussion

799
FXUS65 KVEF 071650
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
950 AM PDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Monsoonal moisture will support one more round of isolated shower
  and thunderstorm activity this afternoon.
* A drying trend is expected the first half of the week as flow
  becomes more westerly. Relatively cooler temperatures will also
  overspread the region by mid week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Through next Saturday.
Although the downward trend in moisture continues today, there is
still enough moisture and instability for isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon. CAMs show potential over Mohave County, the Colorado
River Valley, and eastern San Bernardino County. Forecast soundings
still indicate pockets of deep moisture and PWATs in the 1 to 1.5
inch range in these areas, which means that heavy downpours and
flash flooding still can`t be ruled out. Soundings also show 1200 to
1500 J/kg DCAPE, meaning gusty outflow winds are also within the
realm of possibility. Convection should favor high terrain where
forcing is the greatest and activity will end after sunset with a
loss of surface heating.
A large upper trough will track east into the California coast early
this week, pushing any remaining moisture out of the forecast area.
With lower heights, temperatures become 5-10 degrees below seasonal
normals by midweek. This means highs in the low 90s to upper 80s for
Las Vegas. The drier air will also bring more relief overnight with
cool morning lows, including temperatures in the low 70s in Las
Vegas by midweek. Temperatures may start to increase again towards
next weekend as the low exits east and heights aloft begin to
rise.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light
and variable winds will shift to the south and southwest early this
afternoon, increasing to around 10-12KT with at least intermittent
gusts to around 20KT through early evening. After sunset, gusts
diminish, though southwesterly winds will remain around 10KT
overnight and become gusty once again toward the end of the period.
VFR conditions will prevail with minimal thunderstorm activity and
temperatures remaining under 100 degrees.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Conditions will be far
less unsettled today, with isolated thunderstorms generally confined
to the higher terrain of northwestern Arizona and the southern
Mojave Desert this afternoon. Light winds this morning will shift to
the south and southwest this afternoon, with gusts to 20-25KT
common, though will be somewhat lighter in the Owens and Lower
Colorado River Valleys, and favor more of a westerly direction INVOF
KDAG. Gusts will diminish this evening, with VFR conditions
prevailing.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Meltzer
AVIATION...Gorelow
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion