Leesville, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

419
FXUS62 KCAE 291452
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1052 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore showers are expected to continue spreading into central
South Carolina through today and into tomorrow. Confidence
remains high that Imelda`s track will shift east over the next
48 hours, keeping the region unaffected. Drier and cooler
conditions are anticipated by midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Clouds and rain showers are expected today and tonight
The current radar imagery shows isolated showers gradually
moving east to west this morning. With weak overall forcing,
most rainfall will remain light, through a passing shower could
be briefly bring moderate rates near half an inch per hour.
Widespread cloud coverage is expected to continue into the
overnight hours with sufficient low-level moisture available.
With limited sunshine this afternoon, high temperatures will run
below normal, holding the mid to upper-70s.
Overnight low temperatures will trend 5 degrees above average
with elevated dew points and no radiational cooler with
lingering clouds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Cloudy and cool conditions expected as moisture remains to
  the north of TS Imelda.
Our final "impacts" associated with Tropical Storm Imelda will be
felt on Tuesday. Even these impacts look more minimal than they have
the last few days as Imelda has continue to trend towards taking a
hard eastward turn north of the Bahamas over the next few days. The
upper level trough axis is forecast to shift atop our area, yielding
upper level convergence for much of the day. The result should be
merely cloudy skies with some isolated showers through most of the
day. The clouds and low-level northeasterly flow should maintain
cooler temps across the area, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Clouds may hang around into the night with lows falling into the
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Increasingly dry and cool conditions are expected through the
  end of the week.
Now for the good stuff! Our first taste of fall looks to arrive
during this period as a seasonally strong surface high pressure
pushes into the northeastern CONUS and ridges southwestward along
the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Sunny skies are
forecast to return on Wednesday as moisture rapidly leaves the
area. We`ll be ahead of a weak backdoor front, which should aid
in helping us warm up into the low 80s once again. Winds out of
the northeast gusting 15-20 mph will make it feel a bit cooler
than it would otherwise. Beyond this, a dry and cool airmass
looks to settle in through the end of the period. Highs are
expected to be in the 70s Thur/Fri/Sat, warming only marginally
back to the low 80s by Sunday. Overnight lows should be between
50F and 60F given the dry airmass in place. The pressure
gradient looks tight for much of this period, too, with breezy
northeasterly winds continuing each afternoon. There may be some
moisture return by next weekend but that is uncertain at this
point. The moral of the story is that the weather looks
genuinely nice later this week.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High confidence remains that widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings
will persist through the TAF period. Ceilings between 500ft to
1200ft are expected to continue over the next 24 hours, with
isolated to scattered rain showers likely across the region that
might reduce visibility briefly. The probability of fog remains
low with a heavy stratus deck.
Probability of measurable precipitation decreases early Tuesday
morning, between 08Z to 15Z. However, MVFR to IFR conditions
will likely continue into Tuesday afternoon.
High resolution models are trending that VFR conditions increase
Tuesday afternoon, between 17Z to 20Z as tropical moisture
escapes the region under northerly flow.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Probability of VFR conditions mid-
week is high with a drier pattern Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hefferan

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion