Lehigh, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

115
FXUS64 KOUN 090653
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
153 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 145 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
- Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into the
   evening across far western Oklahoma.
- Below average temperature today although a warming trend
   starting mid-week with warmer than average temperatures
   through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Warmer today as temperatures start approaching seasonably normal
with highs in the mid to upper 80s with a few areas in our southwest
reaching 90 degrees.  Another afternoon with south winds and thin
scattered Cirrus although will be increasing tonight from our
northwest flow pattern.  There is a low chance for strong to severe
storms toward the early evening hours in parts of our western CWA
mainly the western two-tier of our Oklahoma counties. These storms
may initiate nearby on the Texas Panhandle where some forecast
soundings suggest strong surface mixing from diurnal heating
breaking the boundary layer cap into near moderately unstable air.
Surface moisture of lower 60s dewpoints may be sufficient to fuel
convection along with increasing deep-layer shear for the potential
up to a few supercells producing large damaging hail while downdraft
CAPE values suggest a a second potential severe hazard of damaging
wind gusts. Although adequate but marginal, the deep-layer shear
is not expected to be strong enough keeping the tornado hazard
risk very low. However, a low-level jet increasing over the
panhandles may keep storms there organized overnight.
Should severe convection initiate late this afternoon on the Central
through Southern High Plains expecting most of it impacting the
Texas & Oklahoma Panhandles although some it could spill into
Oklahoma portions of our western CWA.  However would not expect
storms to remain severe very far east in our area as they would be
tracking into less unstable and air and away from the low-level jet
maxima. As a result have 20% storm pops across our western two-tier
of counties in Oklahoma through late evening when the marginal
severe risk diminishes.  Severe hazards would be large hail &
damaging winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
An upper ridge continues to build through Thursday as well as our
warming trend with seasonably normal temperatures on Wednesday to
slightly warmer than normal for Thursday.  A mid-level shortwave
digging through the ridge on Wednesday morning could produce a few
weak elevated thunderstorms transitioning to rain showers early
Wednesday morning across northwest Oklahoma.  Severe risk would be
very low based on very weak MUCAPE instability.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Slightly warmer than average temperatures will persist into early
next week with highs generally in the lower to mid 90s.  Although
the Southern Plains stays under weak ridging, a deep amplitude
trough over the entire Western U.S. will gradually transition
eastward reaching the Southern High Plains by Saturday.  A series of
shortwave disturbances flowing downstream of the trough will bring
low rain/storm chances back into our area for this weekend. The
rain/storm chances will be restricted to western Oklahoma and parts
of western north Texas on Saturday then expanding into all of
central Oklahoma on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
All of our terminals should remain in a VFR category through the
forecast period.  Will keep a TEMPO for -TSRA and gusty winds at
terminals KCSM during the next four hours due to convection in the
area coming off the Texas Panhandle with ceilings around 4,000 ft.
Surface winds will increase out of the south by 16Z at 10 kts
gusting up to 15 kts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  64  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         91  65  94  65 /  20  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  89  64  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           89  64  91  65 /  20  20  20   0
Ponca City OK     85  62  87  64 /  10  10  10   0
Durant OK         85  60  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...68

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion