Lillis, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

175
FXUS63 KTOP 061126
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
626 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog this morning, otherwise dry weather with plenty of
sunshine this weekend.
- Next chance of rain (20-60%) comes Monday into early Tuesday.
- Temperatures gradually warm up through next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Upper low continues to slowly move east across Ontario into Quebec,
leaving broad cyclonic flow over much of the central and eastern
CONUS. An amplified ridge is noted over the Pacific Northwest.
Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure dominates the central US.
Nearly calm winds, clear skies, and Td depressions between 0-3
degrees have led to the development of patchy fog in parts of the
area early this morning. Isolated areas of fog can be seen on the
nighttime microphysics satellite product, and these areas seem to
line up with where the lowest visibilities (half mile or less) are
located based on observations and cameras. As of 08Z, this looks
isolated enough to preclude an advisory, but will continue to
monitor in case it becomes more widespread. Due to the patchy nature
of the fog, visibility could drop fairly quickly over short
distances.
Fog should burn off within an hour or two after sunrise, making way
for a sunny and pleasant day across the area. Insolation should help
highs to reach the 70s. The sfc ridge slowly moves east through
today, although it will still have plenty of influence on our
weather through Sunday. With that in mind, patchy fog once again
looks like a realistic possibility Sunday morning with the daytime
being a near repeat of today, only with highs just a few degrees
warmer.
The next chance for rain (20-60%) comes Monday into Tuesday as a
weak shortwave aloft comes through the region. Guidance seems to be
converging on Monday night as the time period with the highest rain
chances. The better moisture transport and instability appear to be
just west of the area, but there could still be enough for a few
thunderstorms, particularly towards central KS. Severe weather is
not anticipated at this time. After rain moves out Tuesday, upper
ridging is progged to amplify over the area, leading to a warming
trend through the week with temperatures into the 80s, possibly
nearing 90 for some locations. It is worth noting that depending on
the strength of the ridge, it may be possible for shortwaves
ejecting out of a trough to our west to get close enough to impact
us at some point later in the week. Right now, confidence isn`t high
enough to have meaningful precip chances in the forecast, but it
will be something to monitor as we go through the next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Fog has brought LIFR conditions to all terminals this morning,
although it`s been a little less persistent at FOE so far.
Expect this to burn off by 14Z with light southwest winds and
VFR conditions thereafter.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ022-
KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ055-KSZ056.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion